Budget comments, ISM forecast, Global bank lending, Fed rate expectations, ECB Euro comments

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  • Eine neue wissenschaftliche Wahrheit pflegt sich nicht in der Weise durchzusetzen, daß ihre Gegner überzeugt werden und sich als belehrt erklären, sondern vielmehr dadurch, daß ihre Gegner allmählich aussterben und daß die heranwachsende Generation von vornherein mit der Wahrheit vertraut gemacht ist.

“A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.”

Max Karl Ernst Ludwig Planck

Yellen and other economists say tax cuts are blowing up the budget

  • Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and a team of economists argue that tax cuts are blowing a hole in the federal budget.
  • The argument, made in a Washington Post op-ed, rejects a Hoover Institution study that blamed entitlements for trillion-dollar deficits forecast for the years ahead.
  • Though Fed leaders including Yellen and others for years pleaded for fiscal assistance from Congress, the op-ed argues that the stimulus was ill-timed.

More evidence higher rates cause inflation?

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The ECB is concerned about euro strength cutting into exports. Hence that makes them more likely to continue with negative deposit rates, etc. However in my humble opinion the negative rates contribute to a strong euro as well as low inflation (via the interest income channels, etc.) which means they, along with all the major CB’s, have it backwards.

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To again quote the hairdresser, ‘no matter how much I cut off it’s still too short’…

ECB members considered that a strong euro may weigh on inflation outlook and that developments in foreign exchange markets continued to be a significant source of uncertainty, minutes from the ECB’s March meeting showed.


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