by Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders
Our focus is on developing and deploying very specialized price modeling and predictive analysis systems. Our objective is to inform our members of these potential price moves and to assist them in finding successful trading opportunities. We are alerting all of our followers of a potential move today, because we believe this move could frighten some investors as we expect price rotation as Q3 earnings data is released just before the November 2018 mid-term elections.
The weekly $INDU (Dow Industrial Average) chart shows our Adaptive Predictive Learning (ADL) modeling system at work. In this example, we asked our ADL system what it believed would be the most likely outcome originating from July 23, 2018. The reason we selected this date is because this weekly price bar prompted the current upside price move. This type of price trigger can often generate highly accurate future predictive price data. This bar consisted of 11 unique price markers that predict future price moves, first lower, then back to the upside, with a range of probability from 83% to 96%. The initial downside price move suggests that an initial -800 to -1000 pt move (-4%) will take place before November 10, 2018. Subsequently, price should begin to move upward again after the US mid-term elections and through the end of 2018.
In conclusion, October is known as a weak month for US equities so get ready for price volatility and expect the Tech-heavy NASDAQ to rotate in a larger range than the S&P and the $INDU. Additionally, expect the VIX to increase in value over the next 30+ days as October passes.
I will admit the charts in July/Early September were showing signs of a market correction in mind September but no bearish reversal pattern formed and price continued higher. During this time we closed out a position in YINN for 14% profit and another 4.3% in the IYT ETF. This goes to show how we can profit to the long side even when we are expecting a sell off the markets. We trade based on technical analysis and use our ADL and other forecasting analysis to add more conviction to a move, but we don’t trade based on predictions along.
If you want to know how we help our members find and execute for greater success, visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to see our completed trades for this year and learn how we can help you find great opportunities now and in the future.
Chris Vermeulen
Chris Vermeulen has been involved in the markets since 1997 and is the founder of Technical Traders Ltd. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and author of the book: 7 Steps to Win With Logic
Through years of research, trading and helping individual traders around the world. He learned that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing, they struggle to execute trades in a systematic way for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders with a three-hour video course that can change your trading results for the better.
His mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.
He has also been on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine, and featured in Futures Magazine, Gold-Eagle, Safe Haven,The Street, Kitco, Financial Sense, Dick Davis Investment Digest and dozens of other financial websites.
Disclaimer: This material should not be considered investment advice. Technical Traders Ltd. and its staff are not registered investment advisors. Under no circumstances should any content from websites, articles, videos, seminars, books or emails from Technical Traders Ltd. or its affiliates be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or commodity contract. Our advice is not tailored to the needs of any subscriber so talk with your investment advisor before making trading decisions. Invest at your own risk. I may or may not have positions in any security mentioned at any time and maybe buy sell or hold said security at any time.