by John Wilder
“100,000 pesos to perform with this El Guapo, who’s probably the biggest actor to come out of Mexico!” – ¡Three Amigos!
I once bought a clock with half a face. It was a limited time offer.
- People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology. Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
- Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
- Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
- Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
The clock didn’t move this month for the second month in a row. That’s good. I can’t see it moving anytime soon, since I don’t see government sanctioned violence soon. Please . . . let me be right.
In this issue: Front Matter – Violence and Censorship Update – COVID-19 and the Coming Mexican Instability – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – Links
Welcome to Issue 11 of the Civil War II Weather Report. These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month. Issue One is here (LINK), Issue Two is here (LINK), Issue Three is here (LINK), Issue Four is here (LINK), Issue Five is here (LINK), Issue Six is here (LINK), Issue Seven is here (LINK), Issue Eight is here (LINK), Issue Nine is here (LINK), and Issue Ten is here (LINK).
Violence and Censorship Update
This one is fairly straightforward. March 2020 will probably go down as one of the quietest months on record for actual violence. With a huge percentage of the population home watching Netflix™ instead of living their lives, violence just wasn’t on the menu. Censorship is generally poorly reported anyway, but I haven’t heard much of that, either, other than of Amazon® banning and then unbanning of a certain book by an obscure German-speaking author with a distinctive mustache.
“Why should I care about future generations? What have they ever done for me?” – Groucho
Me? If you’re gonna ban a book by a German that cost millions of lives, start with the undisputed champ, Das Kapital by Karl Marx. Sadly, that’s a book that’s just too popular in some places, like each of Bernie Sanders’ three houses.
COVID-19, the Coming Mexican Instability, and Civil War 2.0
This topic could have been its own post, but I’ll include it in this month’s Civil War 2.0 Weather Report as the main topic.
News is changing quickly, so quickly that it keeps us as off balance as Johnny Depp on a Monday morning. The other day, Pugsley, (my son, who is in his early teens) was talking about an event. Implied in his statement was that the event was a long time ago.
“Pugsley,” I said, “that was just two weeks ago.”
The look on his face was priceless – his entire world had spun apart, with new changes every day. Yes, it was only two weeks ago, but in that span of time a year’s worth of dramatic changes had happened which includes him not being in school. Time has compressed, just like waistbands in self-isolation have expanded.
With so much news coming out, most people are grappling with the rapidly changing events of each day, as well as the important question of exactly what seven-season television show to binge-watch in the basement and when is the proper time to switch from coffee to wine since you’re supposed to be working from home. Is 4:30 too early?
Life is like a box of chocolates. They both are down in the basement with Netflix®.
Most people seem to think that things are going to go back to normal, even as company after company begins to show economic strain from missing revenue for the last month. The idea that the world has changed hasn’t caught up with them yet. And, yes, for real, the NBA® has thrown out the idea that they could play a game of H.O.R.S.E. for money.
I’m not kidding.
But what’s next? Economies around the world are crumbling, so what will the world look like in three months, in six months?
What happens next?
One of the major contributors to the stress that will cause Civil War 2.0 is on our southern border: Mexico. Increased instability due to decades of immigration (legal and illegal) has created a country where the number of first and second generation immigrants makes up at least 25% of the population in the United States. This has fed the cultural divide in the country – immigrants from Latin American countries tend to be way more communist like big government and they cannot lie.
COVID-19 will take this trend and increase it.
Mexico’s economy is tightly twinned to the United States. Even before NAFTA, Mexico was highly economically dependent on the United States. If the economy of the United States is toast? The economy of Mexico is charcoal.
And think of the savings on shampoo!
The odd thing is that people still aren’t thinking about the future that could have 40,000,000 to 50,000,000 unemployed in the United States. The implications for that are huge: stress on unemployment systems. Stress on social welfare systems. Heck, we’re already seeing stress on an important private system: food banks.
America is fortunate – it still produces and will continue to produce enough food to feed ourselves plus a big chunk of other nations. It still has oil to be extracted, natural gas to provide heating and fertilizer, and still has large amounts of mineral resources. Most importantly, it has vast forest resources and factories to produce the most important commodity on the world today: toilet paper.
Mexico, however, is a nation with a kleptocratic government that’s famous for being impotent and corrupt, with a secondary government consisting of drug cartels. Economically, Mexico periodically grows (slowly) between currency defaults. Right now, 41% of people in Mexico are in poverty, and that’s when things are going really well, which they have been. Mexico has been having a pretty significant period of stability and growth since 2010 or so. I mean, for Mexico.
Mexico is partially funded by what are known as remittances.
$26 billion or so is sent back every year by Mexicans working (mainly) in the United States – these are the remittances. This is the single largest source of foreign income to Mexico – think about that – people doing (mainly) menial labor in other countries are is their most economically successful export.
Large hats are the second largest export.
So, what happens when the Greatest Depression now brewing in the United States cascades into economic catastrophe for Mexico, both in Mexico and in the United States?
The waves of people that tried to get into the United States when things were working well will look small. The United States, even in the midst of the oncoming collapse is going to look much, much better than the failed state that Mexico will certainly devolve into.
Tension is already developing in the United States. Back during the Great Depression, cities commonly erected signs that discouraged men from even entering town, “Jobless Men: Keeping Going, We Can’t Take Care Of Our Own.” In a start down that road, the Department of Homeland Security announced that the H2B Guest Worker program was on hold. H2B visas are intended for, “temporary non-agricultural workers.” How long until H1B Guest Workers disappear? How long until illegals cease to be able to find work because of public backlash?
Best part of blogging as a job? Don’t need to worry about income taxes.
Something tells me that whatever party tries to tell the unemployed that importing tons of guest workers even temporarily to take jobs from Americans will soon find themselves out above the crowd, perhaps on a lamppost.
Regardless, there will be unemployed and desperate Mexicans that will seek life and the safety net available in the United States – all of the Democratic candidates raised their hands on offering free healthcare for illegal immigrants, even though Biden probably was thinking that they said free sniff hair for weasel innocence. Any campaign promise that involves sniffing hair is definitely one Biden will keep.
The benefits of being in the United States, even when illegal, are astounding. Essentially free health care at emergency rooms and clinics. Free schooling. Free food for their children. Free medical care to have babies. Illegals with children born in the United States get food stamps, legal services, and New York offers them up to $300 a month in cash. I think California offers them free cell phones, though most illegals won’t take them because they’re Android® phones and they were hoping to get a cute iPhone™ like that hota Lupita has.
The car company that makes Dodge™ automobiles doesn’t make cell phones. Just Chargers®.
Even though I predict a backlash from unemployed citizens to emerge, the lure of all that Free Stuff in the United States will prove to be too strong to citizens of an economy that will be devastated an order of magnitude greater than the United States.
They will come, especially since it’s likely that not only will Mexico be economically unstable, but politically unstable, leading to yet another revolution down south. That always works out so well for them, right? Just like the economic conditions of the United States pushed Mexico into the abyss, the collapse of Mexico will put additional pressure on the United States. In addition to the Free Stuff, Mexicans will be coming for safety from the Subcommandante of the Week.
Soon enough, dealing with the hungry in the United States will be all that we can do. Mexico imports 45% of its food right now. How many Mexicans will try to get to the United States when Mexico can’t afford to import?
Updated Civil War II Index
March was a difficult month for the economy, and that shows up in the graphs. April, I believe, will be worse. As such, I tried to make sure to select bikini models that suggest the somber nature of the graphs, or, failing that, I looked for cute ones. Either way, I’m sure that you all will agree that this meets or exceeds the fine journalistic standards set by my compatriots at CNN®.
Violence:
Up is more violent. Violence is down because everyone is stuck in the basement. Depending on how the food and money situation, you could see riots, big ones, in the streets of major cities. June may be a very difficult month, politics or no, but until then, enjoy your time at the beach. Mostly alone.
Political Instability:
Up is more unstable. Instability skyrocketed with impeachment, and then got better before bouncing slightly this month and last. COVID-19 won’t help with stability, and I don’t think we’ll get this behind us soon.
Economic:
Down indicates worse economic conditions. The economic indicators began to turn in February, and here is the first look at March. I expect April to be the same or worse. Based on the way this index is calculated, it only shows a part of the free-falling stock market. As many readers to this series have noted – until the economy craters, don’t expect Civil War 2.0. But as you can see, affording clothing might be difficult soon.
Illegal Aliens:
Down is good, in theory. This is a statistic showing border apprehensions by the Border Patrol. Down. But for how long? At least past the ankle, right?
Links
Most are from Ricky this month . . . enjoy!
The Hill on Civil War
American Greatness on the Coronavirus War.
Coronavirus social unrestcoming?
COVID-19 and Martial Law?
The Atlantic on Martial Law.
Newsweek – Military Plans?
Police sickened by COVID-19.
Gun sales spike, here, and here, and here.
Zerohedge: Are we getting ready for the boogaloo?