by John Wilder
“I can promise you this will not silence your demons. If you can’t control the violence, the violence controls you.” – Star Trek: Voyager
I really didn’t expect to do this so soon – the clock moved closer to midnight. Last month was 6. Now we’re at a 7. The scale is from the first issue (Civil War II Weather Report: Spicy Time Coming)
- Those who have an opposing ideology are considered evil.
- People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology. Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
- Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
- Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
In this issue: Front Matter – Violence Update – Forward Observer Video and Criticism – Logistics – Updated Civil War II Index – Who Benefits, Part II? – Chittum’s Book – Links
Welcome to Issue Three of the Civil War II Weather Report. These posts are a bit different than the other posts here at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War II, on the first Monday of every month. Issue One is here (Civil War II Weather Report: Spicy Time Coming) and Issue Two is here (Civil War Weather Report #2, Censorship, Stalin, and a Bunch of Links).
Please keep the comments, emails, and links coming in – they provide a way for all of us to get smarter, faster. You can comment below, or send me an email at email@example.com. If I get an email, I’ll assume you don’t want your name mentioned or to be directly quoted (except for links), and I’ll honor that unless you explicitly give permission to refer to you or to quote you.
Last month this was the Censorship Update, and even before the El Paso shooting I had selected violence the topic of this month. I had this section written before the El Paso shooting this weekend and had to (obviously) re-write it. Here’s what I had written:
Almost all of the violence started on the Left, and was perpetrated by the Left. The biggest story was the beating of Andy Ngo, though there were multiple other attacks on display. July and August are typically months where violence is running high – heat seems to make riots, though I’m not sure if that’s changed now that air conditioning is more prevalent.
The level of violence is rising. I would follow Remus’ advice:
“Unless one side or the other sends death squads into my neighborhood, I shall observe my Most Excellent and Inviolable Rule One For Survival: stay away from crowds.”
If you’re not (like me) waiting every Tuesday for the Woodpile Report® (LINK), shame on you.
Obviously, El Paso changes what I have to say.
El Paso is a narrative that will likely have legs in the media for months – this is the shooting the Left has been dreaming of – a shooter who isn’t gang related, a Person of Color, Moslem, or going after Republicans. And the shooter wasn’t in Chicago where last weekend (7/29/19) 9 were killed and 39 were wounded in what is a more or less “normal” level of violence. This shooter fulfills the Narrative of the Left in ways that previous shooters haven’t.
I had a discussion with several people about El Paso today. They were less surprised than I was about the violence – they reminded me about all of the violence from the Left, including the shooter that tried to kill Republican congressmen and the now endemic violence against supporters of even the most mainstream members of the Right whenever they appear in Leftist strongholds. From their perspective, this was a response – a predictable response to the pressure being placed on the Right.
Do I think the Manifesto is fake? Probably not. Do I think that this is a “false flag”? Again, probably not. I’ll leave room for both of those things.
What comes next? That’s tough. I’d expect more violence from the Left, both disorganized (isolated beatings – groups engaging in random interracial violence) and organized (Antifa®). I don’t expect more (near term) from the Right, but I must make clear – I didn’t expect El Paso.
Will it escalate? I spent several hours going through comments on primarily Leftist sites on the Internet today. What I came away with was, more or less, that they feel entirely justified in increasing the level of violence and see no connection with their hospitalizing assaults and “chemical milk shakes” since they are morally justified.
The polarity increased this weekend. And if this is the level of polarity and violence we have when the economy is “good” – beware. A recession will lead levels of violence not seen in the United States since 1865.
Forward Observer Video and Criticism
Last month I presented and gave a critique of the John Mark video about Civil War II. The primary focus of the Weather Report are the conditions that lead to war, not conduct of the war itself, but it seemed like a good idea to discuss the video – it was on topic, suggested by a reader, and had a huge number of hits. The John Mark video presented what I thought was a too optimistic view of the outcome of Civil War II.
Aesop, (who you should be reading whenever he posts, or you’ll miss gems like this) and his monthly Ebola Update LINK) had some criticism of Mark’s video in the comments. He included a link to Sam Culper’s Forward Observer series that was a response to John Mark.
I think Mr. Culper was just a wee bit angry when he started the videos. The videos are very good, and if you have an interest in this subject, I suggest that you review them as well. Mr. Culper knows his stuff.
One mild criticism is that he indicates that we won’t have a World War II-type war or a replay of Civil War I. I think we can all agree that’s a given and he probably could have skipped that. This will be far uglier and resemble the breakup of Yugoslavia or of the Beatles®. It will be nasty, and I think Mr. Culper’s thought that the Right wouldn’t lay siege to Los Angeles or New York because it would wreck the financial system or disrupt the economy is not a concern that the Right will have. If it gets to that point, it’s not war to take over an economy. The Right won’t care.
In the third video, he mentions Sir John Glubb’s The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival, which I discussed back in ‘17 (End of Empires, PEZ, and Decadence). Glubb’s observations remain relevant as the end of the American experiment comes closer and he’s right to bring him up.
Again, the Forward Observer videos are good. Watch them – make your own conclusions.
The reason I don’t try to delve too far into the predictions of how the war will unfold is that will depend on the initial conditions. As Culper frequently and appropriately notes in the video, predictions are hard. As Yogi Berra specifies, “especially about the future.”
Wait until you hear about story hour.
But those initial conditions will end up determining both the course of the war, and the conclusion. Beware: Your opinion now will be (depending upon who wins) be held against you at the end. In that case, it would be best for everyone if the Libertarians™ won, but I seem to note that they’re all off smoking weed and having deep conversations about Ayn Rand.
Updated Civil War II Index
Economic: +10.42 last month, +1.78 this month. Unemployment is slightly up – interest rates were slightly down, and the Dow was up. If this is right, economic conditions are slowing. While positive is good, this is less positive than last month.
Political Instability: +10%. This increase in instability is minor, compared to the drop (-46%) last month, and probably related to Mueller’s testimony. I think the proximity to elections is actually having a calming effect.
Interest in Violence: Up 8% this month, compared to 7% last month. I expect the August numbers to skyrocket.
Illegal Aliens: Down 38% last month to 104,000. That sounds great, but last month was the highest ever at 144,000, and this month was the third highest ever. So, down is good, but third highest is still bad. For perspective, last year it was 43,000. This is either sign of increased instability in the countries down South, or decreased fear of deportation. There is no good news in this category.
Last Weather Report I dropped a (more or less) throwaway line to the effect on the conduct of the war that:
The Left can be resupplied via air and ship. “Emergency” supplies would head into coastal cities and sustain them forever, though Denver would fall soon enough. Would Russia supply the heartland while the Chinese supplied the West Coast?
Rightly, Joe at Eaton Rapids Joe called me on it, and noted it on his blog that you should be reading, here (LINK).
One thing that is true is that it’s certainly not going to be possible to feed the entire United States externally during a war. Feeding the Boston-New York-D.C. corridor which comprises over 20% of the United States population from external sources simply won’t happen, and I’m not sure if anyone in Europe will even try.
What will happen without Doritos®? And salsa?
But Mexico or China could feed Los Angeles, if they wanted to. I put pencil to paper and found, that to give everyone in Los Angeles 1700 calories a day it’s a really small number of 20’ shipping containers of rice – 600 or so. And, yes, China is a food importer, why would they export food to the United States, and a few million people to feed isn’t even rounding error on their current food supply.
Water would be tougher. To secure the port would require troops setting up a perimeter, but I’d think that when the residents of Los Angeles figured out the machine guns won’t be shooting over their heads anymore, they’d stay well back.
Distribution would be a mess. But the food can make it to the city. Similar numbers work for San Francisco. If you read below, however, I don’t think any of that will happen.
Who Benefits, Part II?
But who benefits from a civil war in the United States? Internally to the United States, it depends on who wins. Externally, the list of potential winners is long. I wrote about China last week (China – What’s the deal?) it occurred to me that China is currently working on building a system so they don’t need the United States at all – I’d expect them to focus on having alternate sources for everything that they depend on the United States for, including food. The end of the United States as a global power would allow them to move from a regional power to the leading global power.
China couldn’t defeat us militarily. But if we defeated ourselves? Bonus, and Sun Tzu would nod in approval!
And we hope he didn’t ask him to wok the dog.
Civil War would allow Russia to increase influence in Europe, so this wouldn’t bother them much at all. Europe? Europe would lose their free army, but would gain the markets that the United States would leave.
Would there be a period of economic dislocation for all of those countries? A period of economic depression? Sure. But there is the possibility that each of them would gain.
So, who would resupply those cities? Maybe nobody.
I originally thought I’d be reviewing Thomas W. Chittum’s book, Civil War Two (LINK) in this issue, but this update is long enough now. Civil War Twocame out in 1997, but his analysis is so accurate it’s like he wrote most of it last week. I’ll review/summarize it starting no later than Monday, though it might take me more than one post to complete the review.
The missing link discovered zero, but didn’t tell anyone because he thought it was nothing.
First up is from Practical Eschatology. Docent (the proprietor there) has an interesting look at mass immigration.
Notes on how fragile our infrastructure really is from Andrew Miller.
Concerned American correctly noted that Matt is an excellent writer. Buy his books.
From Ricky and Zerohedge.
Also from Ricky, on another divide.
Please keep the links coming!