Contrarian view on Covid-19 and some ramblings

by Afridev

Contrarian view on Covid-19:

Not sure what the reliability of the piece is.

The balance is a difficult one to get right in the complexity of many factors with many unknowns:

  • (Potential) severity of the epidemic itself, reaction undershoot (Sweden?) vs reaction overshoot (comprehensive lock-down). Intelligent precautionary principle seems the best approach. ‘Hammer’ and you manage the short-term problem, but leave the underlying vulnerability (non-immune population) until an effective vaccine is available. Managed propagation brings herd-immunity, but risks blowing up in your face if assumptions are wrong.
  • ‘Pull it’ in the economy; try to keep economy afloat vs ‘all-in’ on flattening the curve. Managed demolition to address the underlying vulnerabilities in the economy and rebalance physical economy and its resource base (environment and real society) vs financial economy would be most adequate -> not gonna happen… The medium- and long-term economic fall-out is probably going to be severe.
  • Political and social trust: justified and unjustified destruction of trust (emergency response is always a gamble and mistakes are part of it, how these are managed and will be interpreted will be important though) mixed with emotions will also generate severe fall-out. Interesting the approaches of China and Russia vs USA and EU, this will have a tail for several dogmas and existing institutions…

Does anyone have an opinion on Pepe Escobar article ?

Interesting times…