Covid-19 deaths are increasing exponentially. 3 weeks ago there were 10 per day. Now there are 100 per day. It’s likely that in 3 weeks there will be 1000 per day and the world will finally freak out about this disease

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Specifically Sunday 1 March is the implied date for new deaths jumping 1000 in one day (to a total of 10,000 deaths.) Assuming: 1) accurate death toll numbers have been and continue to be reported. 2) All the quarantine efforts have only managed to reduce R0 from 3.0 to 2.0.
If this forecast pans out, then you don’t want to know where we go from there 3 weeks later….China has 1,400,000,000 people
Tracking available here (updates death toll once per day at 00:00 GMT )


The curve is growing exponentially.


h/t mark000[


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