Deflationary Spiral Incoming

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by Reduntu

Cliffs:

  • Anecdotal evidence suggests wages are starting to decline.
  • Wages never decline — people and employers prefer layoffs. Employees are unwilling to take pay cuts, and employers don’t want to destroy morale. Wages didn’t even decline in the great recession and were resistant to declines in the great depression.
  • This means the economic damage done so far is much more severe than the markets think or what’s rolling out in weekly/monthly data releases
  • With the federal governments head up its ass, states can’t get enough testing supplies/infrastructure in place to even begin thinking about opening up, yet they’re doing so anyway. We will be seeing sporadic secondary shutdowns all summer, and possibly a wave 2 in the fall that is worse than wave 1. Recovery will be slow as shit and employment will not bounce back.

Sources:

Federal Reserve will soon need to stem deflation

America’s middle class gets hit with office jobs disappearing

 

Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.

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