It seems like most people I talk to believe this recession will be similar to 2008 – painful, high unemployment, some foreclosures, but hopefully slowly clawing our way back to some semblance of growth.
This shows a lack of imagination, in my opinion. Call it normalcy bias or recency bias or whatever.
I think people are really underestimating the potential for conflict. Hundreds of millions of unemployed people with no hope for the future, multiplied by already deep political divisions, plus record inequality, equals a highly combustible situation.
Trump blaming China forms the outlines of war. Armed protestors at the Capitol building form the outlines of civil unrest. Famine in the global South could send waves of new refugees here, which forms the outlines of genocide.
Do you think these things are probable, or is the quarantine making me lose my mind?