Dot Plot Fantasyland Flashback vs Current Rate Cut Expectations

via mishtalk:

In December, Powell said the Fed was on “autopilot”. Let’s compare those dot plots with current Fed Fund Futures.

The above chart is from CME Fedwatch.

December 11, 2019 FOMC Rate Odds on 2019-05-29

  • Hikes 0%
  • No Change: 18.2%
  • 1 Cut: 39.5%
  • 2 Cuts: 30.5%
  • 3 Cuts: 10.2%
  • 4 Cuts: 1.5%
  • 5 Cuts: 0.1%

The odds of at least one cut are 81.8%

September 18, 2019 Fedwatch

September 18, 2019 FOMC Odds on 2019-05-29

  • Hikes 0%
  • No Change: 45.1%
  • 1 Cut: 43.7%
  • 2 Cuts: 10.5%
  • 3 Cuts: 0.7%

The odds of at least one cut are 54.9%

Unfortunately, I failed to capture CME Fedwatch odds following the December 19, “autopilot” meeting, but I did comment on the dot plot of Fed expectations.

Flashback December 19, 2018 Fed Hikes as Expected

Let’s take a peek at my comments on December 19, 2018, in Fed Hikes as Expected, Dot Plot of Expected Hikes Changes Significantly.

Dot Plot December 19, 2018

December 2018 Fed Governor Projections

  • Cut Votes: 0
  • No Change: 2
  • One Hike: 4
  • Two Hikes: 5
  • Three Hikes: 6

What a hoot.

September is even more amusing.

September 2018 Fed Governor Projections

Every step of the way the Fed overestimated the strength of the economy and its resolve to hike.

March 20, 2019 Dot Plot

Even in March, not a single Fed governor anticipated any cuts this year.

The Fed next meets on June 18-19.

That dot plot is sure to continue the amusement.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

 

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