Economic momentum is peaking…. Fed will contain inflation and in the process risk an earlier recession?

🇺🇸 Economic momentum is peaking.

At the highs of 68 in March, ISM Mfg New Orders were in the 95th %ile of their historical distribution since 1948…

Very stretched.

My leads suggest we top out early next year & then work lower.

Huge asset allocation implications.

Stay tuned. pic.twitter.com/hEsKjodV6d

— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) October 30, 2021

Spike in yields at the front end of the #yieldcurve reflects surge in expectations of rapid increase in rates by #Fed. Why then are longer term #bonds rallying? Fed will contain #inflation and in the process risk an earlier #recession.

— Scott Minerd (@ScottMinerd) October 29, 2021

https://twitter.com/coloradotravis/status/1454054916113109005

A spectacular collapse in liquidity in the rates markets this week pic.twitter.com/nWwYERPsFh

— Igor Schatz (@Copernicus2013) October 29, 2021