By Robert Carbery
Democrats declare that Obama is responsible for the current economic growth we are witnessing. Republicans counter that President Trump’s pro-business actions over the last year are to credit for the current economic climate.
We hear the arguments from both sides of the aisle as to why their man and their party was to credit for the continued prolonged economic expansion including steady job growth and record high stock market prices.
Fortunately for President Trump, the professionals agree with his argument that he is most responsible for the recent economic gains. According to a Wall Street Journal poll asking 68 business, financial, and academic economists who was responsible for the strengthening of the economy, most “suggested Mr. Trump’s election deserves at least some credit” for the upturn. A solid majority agree that Trump is “somewhat” or “strongly” a positive force for job creation, GDP growth, and the rising stock market.
The rollbacks of Obama-era regulations and the December-passed tax bill during Trump’s first tumultuous year in office are certainly critical to the sustained growth we have seen. More than 90 percent of the economists surveyed stated that the tax bill would keep pushing GDP expansion over the next two years.
One cannot ignore the business and consumer optimism since Trump’s election. Explosive business investment has occurred since last November and American companies are bringing more money back to our shores and doling out generous Christmas bonuses and raises after the tax bill passed. Total capital goods spending surged at a 6.2 percent annualized rate over the first three quarters of 2017. If wages keep accelerating and productivity remains high, then the Trump boom could be a sustained period of economic growth, when everyone is waiting for the next crash.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)
Trump and the GOP’s victory lap ended quickly as the government shut down on Friday night. The Democrats continue to paint the Republicans as the mean-spirited party, despite the GOP just passing a tax reform bill that gives a cut to approximately 90 percent of American workers. While Democrats are winning the narrative now defending their precious “Dreamers,” Trump and Republicans have the law and the right America First argument on their side.
$1,000 bonuses for the average American worker are not “crumbs,” as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi would have you believe (despite praising an Obama-era tax cut of $40 in 2011). This is a very real, very significant, and very much needed boost for families across the country.
Whoever gains credit for the healthy economy into 2018 will be most successful in the upcoming midterm elections. The economy’s success has not been linked to Trump yet, as a recent Quinnipiac poll revealed how an encouraging 66 percent of those surveyed view the economy as “good” or “excellent,” however, 49 percent credit Obama while only 40 percent named Trump. However, this poll, as many polls in today’s era of fake news, contains errors. Only 23 percent questioned were Republicans and 34 percent were Democrats with the remaining 38 percent being Independents. The questions’ wording also seemed slightly anti-Trump.
The Democrats cannot hold off Trump and the GOP-controlled Congress receiving credit for the uptick in growth and rising wages for long. Even The New York Times has described a “wave of optimism” sweeping the nation, especially our business community, that is “beginning to translate into the sort of investment in new plants, equipment and factory upgrades that bolsters economic growth, spurs job creation — and may finally raise wages significantly.” This is the truth. And this is only the beginning.
Americans are feeling much better about their futures today than they did at anytime during the Obama administration. With continued economic success throughout 2018, it will be hard for Democrats to make any dent in the Republican wall in Congress in November. We shall see who wins the narrative war.
First, the federal government has to open.
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By Robert Carbery