by Chris Black
What tipped the scales for Trump in 2016 was winning the white labor Democrat vote in the rust belt and previously apolitical people more broadly.
This demographic finds religious people and religious issues annoying, likes Medicare/Social Security/wants more government intervention in the economy, and like Trump because they perceive him as standing up for the white race against undesirable demographic change.
Evangelicals and small business people are going to vote Republican no matter what.
But if the GOP’s message is going to be tax cuts and abortion, the growing white populist voting bloc will stay home for the midterms, as they should.
Republicans’ other Dobbs problem: It’s not just that Democrats are outraged and energized. It’s that a substantial minority of Republican voters, including fans Trump brought to the party, favor legal abortion, and this demoralizes them. t.co/kGtIrjArCE
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) August 25, 2022