Has the market topped (for now)?

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by Phynaes

I’ve read a number of articles over the last few days, not so much the ‘sell in May and go away’ stuff, but articles such as this one, all of whose theme is along the same lines:

  • We’ve had an enormous amount of growth in the US markets since the election
  • There doesn’t seem to be any more ‘new’ good news on the horizon, and the expected good news has already been priced in, hence stocks not moving much on superb earnings
  • Hints/concerns/worries about central bank exit strategies (as well as can be predicted, i.e. no new variants causing unexpected problems)
  • Lots of market euphoria and no more safe havens to hedge to with everything being expensive and treasuries potentially having zero expected future returns under some models – this is includes the possibility that US markets themselves are only at the valuations they are because there doesn’t seem to be anywhere else to put cash for any kind of return
  • The market sputtering a bit recently, perhaps losing positive momentum
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What do you guys think? Are we at/near a top, are we going to drift sideways/go through a kangaroo market, are we set for a draw-down and restart a la 2018? Or do you think it is still generally positive?

 

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