I think are failing to recognize that the economy is undergoing profound changes, and we are only beginning to have the vaguest sense of what the implications are of those changes are.
I listed out a few industries below that I think will be permanently and negatively affected because of COVID-19:
- Commercial real estate – totally fucked. Many white collar businesses have just had to make massive investments to get their employees to be able to work from home, I know my company has (goodbye bonus). You think they will just force everyone to return to the office in two months when things start to open back up? You think they won’t realize how much money they can save on rent by just making everyone work from home permanently (essentially making employees shoulder their rent costs)? You think employees will want to return to the office when they have gotten comfortable working from home, not having to commute and hour and not having to pay exorbitant amounts for child care? GTFO
- Tourism – the days easy international travel are over. No more quick getaways to Europe on Ryan Air for $99 or whatever. It’s going to be a long time before countries start letting in tourists and other non-citizens like they used to, given that the Cornonavirus outbreak in Italy may be been started by two superspreader Chinese tourists, although granted they are now thinking it was in the country earlier. But point is that international travel will be extremely difficult if not impossible for the foreseeable future.
- Oil & Gas – less commuting (see commercial real estate above) = less need for gas = less need for oil.
- Cruise lines – need I say more?
- Malls/retail – no one is going to risk their life to go shopping when they can just order from home, COVID-19 is just accelerating the death of brick-and-mortar retail.
- Restaurants – You spend less money taking out food than actually dining in at a restaurant. Similar to malls/retail, no one is going to risk their life just for the privilege of paying to sit down at a restaurant where the waiter is wearing a mask and you will have to use disposable menus and plastic knives and forks
These are just a few examples, would love to see what others think, I’m sure I’m missing a ton.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.