I feel like the days of limit down are lurking…

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Office Depot Layoffs 2020: 13,100 Jobs Cut, Store Closures, And Shuttered Distribution Centers

According to a Bank of America Fund Manager survey, 68% of fund managers are calling this a ‘bear market rally’.

  • 68% of fund managers say this is a bear market rally, not based on fundamentals
  • but they predict a SP500 level of 3020, 2% up from now.
  • They think the biggest risk is a 2nd wave of COVID; the biggest hope is a vaccine.

This seems to be a classic example of Keynes’ Beauty Contest, where a social consensus about likely group behavior overrides not just individual judgement, but knowledge of others’ individual judgements. If these managers intuited the survey results already, then everybody knows everybody thinks the market is overpriced, but they also trust the group not to act on this belief.

Government predicts GDP will tumble by 38%, the greatest single drop in history

 

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