This time is different? Announced buybacks plummet by 67%, panic cuts everywhere, CNBC is running the 8th “Markets in Turmoil” special since last week….
Panic cuts everywhere. https://t.co/ACZjXPMdPW
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) March 3, 2020
Announced buybacks plummet by 67% in 2020 (mostly pre-Covid-19). Probably why we are not seeing the usual late-day "buy the dip" rallies.
This matters because:
1 – Buyback were the single buyers of stock this cycle
2 – Usually leads EPS negative guidance
3 – Also happened in 07 pic.twitter.com/P4q3k8Aun5— Vincent Deluard (@VincentDeluard) March 3, 2020
They had 6 bullets in their barrel.
After yesterday's action, one could have thought the Fed would wait for a large decline to cut. But no, it couldn't wait and it shot 2 bullets.
Huge mistake. Those bullets are wasted and they now get a failed rally. It's a terrible signal.
— La nuit sera calme (@NuitSeraCalme) March 3, 2020
On the way to zero & beyond.
Not good for the economy. Not good for the 4000 remaining community banks supporting the biggest employer in the US: small firms.
Check out Japan & the eurozone to see what's ahead for the US.
Book: Princes of the Yen https://t.co/cze1ak9IKW https://t.co/mk3VQWZ5IE— Richard Werner (@scientificecon) March 3, 2020
Teddy…but this time is different. https://t.co/AZP0ELBm3y
— PlungeProtectionTeam (@gamesblazer06) March 3, 2020
Widest 7-day intraday ranges in S&P 500 futures history:
October 1987
September 2001
July 2002
October 2002
October – December 2008
January 2009
March 2009
August 2011Today
— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) March 3, 2020
CNBC is running another "Markets in Turmoil" special tonight, the 8th since last week. They will keep running these as long as panic and hysteria is selling. Giving the people what they want, confirmation of their worst fears.
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) March 4, 2020
🚨BREAKING: @WHO says the **case-fatality rate for #coronavirus is 3.4%**.😳
The 1918 Spanish Flu that killed 50 million worldwide (population 1.9 billion) had a CFR of ~2.5%, whereas usual seasonal flu is 0.1%
NOT good.#COVID19 #CoronavirusOutbreak #pandemic
h/t @lauferlaw https://t.co/FH2pW2cOoW— Dr. Dena Grayson (@DrDenaGrayson) March 3, 2020
I think we get an explosion of cases in the US into Friday & weekend. Monday gap lower in equities and the Dec18 lows fast approaching.
No need for bears to worry about an impromptu Fed cut anymore.
— Bovell Global Macro (@Bovell_GM) March 3, 2020
HONG KONG FEBRUARY WHOLE ECONOMY PMI FALLS TO RECORD LOW 33.1@markets
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) March 4, 2020
The probability of another Fed cut at on Match 18 is 153%. Or 53% of a 50 bps cut in two weeks.
That’s 0625%.
The Fed will not waste it’s time. If the market still thinks it’s this bad in two weeks, they will cut to zero.
So, March 18 is nothing or cut to zero.
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) March 3, 2020
The yield on 10y Treasury note has plunged <1% & equities are in free-fall: “If this doesn’t foretell a global recession & further big declines in equity prices, I don’t know what would, especially in view of Fed’s unexpected & large 50bps rate cut today,” Gary Shilling writes. pic.twitter.com/S8e4dRU4Xz
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) March 3, 2020