by Becausereasons1
I’m about to crack open the matrix for you. Also, now that you’re in here I’m going to convince you that it’s circuit breakers down to new lows. Do I have your attention? Proceed.
I know what you’re thinking….
“Nobody could have seen this coming!
“Buy the dip!”
“institutions are selling!”
“Rug pull”
“JPow will save us!”
Well while you were freaking out, I was already bathing in fresh tendies because I called the top HERE and simultaneously discovered the play of all plays by our lord and savior TQQQ Burry… and you better believe I POUNDED THAT SHIT.
You’re all caught with your pants down and Buffett’s bags of shit in your hands. You’re the only retards left. This is a game of musical chairs and the smart money just took the chairs and left the room.
I’ve never posted here. I comment, I learn, I steal ideas, and I’ve been building my thesis while the rest of you idiots buy Hertz. HERTZ!!!?? Maybe we can discuss that later, there’s no time to waste.
Few things…Keep this all in mind while we go along and if you don’t know what I’m talking about google some shit. It’s all out there and in good WSB posts since January. (RIP V-S)
- We’re in a bubble. We have been for a long time. Valuations are stupid, PE ratios off the charts, Nikola is big enough to enter the S&P – IF IT HAD ANY FIST EARNINGS! Jesus Christ
- Debt and leverage globally absolutely DWARF the 2008 problems surrounding CDO’s. You think there was a little corruption and clever lending in America’s banking system? Imagine what goes on in the rest of the world and “Gyna”
- Pretend Covid-19 doesn’t exist. The “crash” in Feb/March was coming no matter what. Governments, corporations, banks all knew it was inevitable and that there is chaos in the financial system. Let’s just operate under that assumption.
- Think of right now as being the 2008 housing crisis, but instead of houses in America it’s COMPANIES IN THE WORLD (hint: its a lot bigger problem)
- First Crash was a liquidity crisis. Nobody had enough cash on their balance sheet to hand over to the people they owed. Think of it like when you don’t pay rent. Your landlord might be financially able to take the hit, but he really doesn’t want to sell those FD’s on Tesla to pay HIS landlord and so on and so on until the entire financial system seizes up. (psst that’s why it’s called “liquidity” dumbass)
- The fed and central banks came to the rescue the only ways they are legally allowed to. Now that’s taken care of and everyone is rife with liquidity to keep the system turning. Today, we are entering a SOLVENCY CRISIS.
Part 1 – Money Printer go BRRRRR?
Now… let me enlighten you for a second… THE FED DOESN’T BUY STOCKS. Well, at least not directly. If you remember one thing about the fed, remember – they are bound by RULES. They MUST keep a balance sheet like any other bank. And the money they “print” cannot enter the market the same way your paycheck buys condoms for your wife’s boyfriend. It’s there to sit on the other side of the balance sheet of BANKS or the TREASURY who can then lend “real” money into the economy. There’s no money that gets “out” – It’s all “loaned” unless it comes from “stimulus” which still goes through Congress and the Treasury. More on that later.
THE POINT IS THERE’S ALWAYS AT LEAST ONE MIDDLE MAN. THIS IS MASSIVELY IMPORTANT LATER!!!
Here is the breakdown of the steps the fed MUST take when conducting those “Open Market Operations” we’ve all heard about.
1. When the Fed buys government securities through securities dealers in the bond market, it deposits the payment into the bank accounts of the banks, businesses, and individuals who sold the securities.
2. Those deposits become part of the funds commercial banks hold at the Federal Reserve and thus part of the funds commercial banks have available to lend.
3. Because banks want to lend money, to attract borrowers they decrease interest rates, including the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans (the federal funds rate).
See? The fed only provides “money” to institutions they are legally allowed to give money to (Treasury and banks). For simplicity’s sake just think of JPow going into his computer and typing in a few zeroes on Jamie Dimon’s Excel spreadsheet or whatever. Doesn’t matter. The fed’s hands are tied and they can only control rates and print money. Oh by the way… JPow lowered banks’ fractional reserve requirement to ZERO. That means banks don’t have to have ANY money in the vault. Make of this what you will.
Part 2 – Why Stimulus is Different than Brrrrr
So now we hopefully understand where the BRRRRR is going and how it gets there. It’s going to anyone who needs a little bump to their cash pile in order to fulfill their existing debt obligations ONLY TO KEEP THE SYSTEM WORKING. No more, no less. Fed makes brrrrr and banks give loans. Fed makes brrrrr and Treasury writes checks. NOBODY WANTS TO DO THIS BULLSHIT.
Read this whole article if you want, but I’ll pull out what matters.
The Great Leverage Unwind – March 22 Before the Stimulus!!
“In order to get a foundation under the markets, we’re going to need something very large, something in the $2 trillion range in the form of a pool of liquidity that can be made quickly available to businesses and corporations that need it, along with the financing facilities of $2 trillion–$4 trillion from the Fed.”
“Liquidity that can be made quickly available” = YOUR TRUMP BUX BABY
Part 3 – Creating a generation of bagholders
Now here we are at the March lows. You’re locked down, you’ve beat off six times, you’re sitting on a Zoom conference call and life sucks. But you’re alright. You got a job still and aren’t really spending money. And hey, Daddy Trump and Jpow are about to drop a stack in your Chase account.
“YOOOOO!!! LOOK HOW CHEAP GAMESTOP STOCK IS!!! AND THE GUY FROM THE BIG SHORT BOUGHT IT!!! I’M A GENIUS!!!”
No dummy, Burry is a genius. And he just dumped his bag on you this week. Along with TLRD, BA, FB, MIK and DISCA. Just wait until you dipshits see Scion’s next quarterly filings. YOU ARE GONNA SHIT. Hint: It ain’t gonna be those companies no more
Same with Buffett.
Same with Ackman.
HOPEFULLY YOU GET IT AT THIS POINT.
OH YEAH….YOU IDIOTS SOLD YOUR APPLE TO APPLE (Buffet sure didn’t)
Edit: I feel I need to highlight this more. What’s it say about Apple and their stock that they made a massive share buyback “cuz price good”? DYOR
Part 4 – Ok we’re simpletons, what do?
Dump your longs
puts – all of them
$TQQQ Burry play
puts on anything with debt and no revenue for bankruptcy plays
$DB puts – anything at $1 (playing a potential collapse here)
$VIX calls
$UUP Calls until after the crash, then puts
$GLD for the love of God
TLDR; Global economy is in a corporate debt bubble that works like housing in 2008. Only way this can be fixed is by the measures we see being taken during Covid. Retail has been MANIPULATED AND REQUIRED to perform the functions the Fed cannot(buying individual stocks). This has led to billionaires and institutions leaving retail holding the bag. It’s going to follow a bursting bubble pattern. Nobody is left to prop up the markets nor do they want to because the leverage has to unwind. Dollar might surge like last time and collapse (milkshake theory).
Edited TLDR2: The plan has always been to crash, reinflate with printed dollars USING RETAIL BUYERS, then crash completely to new lows for an unwinding. The banks, hedge funds, etc are either in on it or they know better than to get caught up in it.
Bonus tidbit: if you’re looking at the DIX (Dark pool index) just know that it’s not “the institutions” doing that buying these past days. That’s our buying and the GEX says the market makers are sufficiently hedged for what’s to come. I’ll see if I can write a post on that because it’s wild.
6/12: www.weforum.org/great-reset/ 👀
6:12 for the record I said “circuit breakers incoming” not “circuit breakers tomorrow”… Watching futures, forex, DIX and foreign indices there’s looking to be a bounce. Im simply watching the VIX and DXY. Remember yesterday how the rollover went IWM, SPY, then finally QQQ? Well, same thing going up so watch that cascade for a reversal. DXY,VIX,IWM,SPY,QQQ, currency flow
Today’s relevant news:
Goldman and Morgan Stanley just downgraded Tesla Right on cue…
Trump retweets call to ban Microsoft from government contracts
Futures being green just means we open higher for people to get a chance to dump. If you were a fund manager would you want the market to open green and immediately sell? Or more red and wait around all day for a sell price you might not get? Remember it’s all about manipulating retail. The “bounce” you figure is coming today already happened overnight. Look at the /ES
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.