I had been doing lots of research since early January about this epidemic and thought I should share some findings. Firstly, I always believe that when a government tries to cover up something, it usually mean the situation is way worse than we can imagine. If it is only a little horrible, the government can say, “It is very bad but we can still fix it, that’s why we are telling you the truth.”. But if the government tries to cover up, it usually means the truth is beyond horrible and there is no way for them to be transparent about it. And that is usually when I am really worried.
Here are some facts from the more transparent countries. For those who don’t know, the following charts (credits to Braydo25) shows exponential growth in the number of infected people. For people who don’t understand the power of exponential growth, if you have a dollar on the first day, and it doubles each day, you would have more money than the entire world combined in less than 2 months.
And this is the number of critical patients whom will need ventilators to help them breath when the virus took over their lungs. Combine this with the exponential growth of the infected, one can’t help but come to the conclusion that the healthcare system is going to be overwhelmed by the number of patients coming in.
If it is growing exponentially, then why is China and Iran telling the entire world that everything is good and dandy? And this is the part where government cover up is in play. Do you remember the few whistleblowers of the coronavirus situation? 2 of the doctors are dead and 2 of the journalists whistleblowers had been arrested and never heard from again.
Iran is another country trying to play down the numbers. If one is willing to look for it, there are videos of mass graves being dig in Iran right now (Source: en.radiofarda.com/a/lawmaker-in-iran-dismisses-official-coronavirus-death-toll/30460224.html ). In fact, 8% of Iran’s parliament has tested positive for coronavirus. Source: edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-03-20-intl-hnk/h_13306122baecfcaa123a7ca59478d0d6
What is the percentage of parliament people to the total population of Iran? That may give you a clue as to the actual cases in the country so if you see Iran only reporting 2000 cases in a country of 81 million people, take it with a grain of salt. If Iran only reported 20 people dying from the coronavirus but they are digging mass graves for the bodies, then it is really suspicious . Like I said, if the government is trying to cover up, it simply means the truth is beyond your imagination and they are not able to be transparent about it.
TLDR: The world is not only going into a recession, but the healthcare system may be overwhelmed during this epidemic. Governments are trying to coverup because the situation is so much worse than you can imagine. SPY Puts all the way until it drops another 15% in the coming few months.
Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t represent the views of IWB.