Inflation Trader Sees Risk of 7% CPI

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U.S. economic growth looks set to fuel inflation that’s even faster than most analysts anticipate in the first part of 2022, according to a trader who correctly picked this year’s jump in bond-market expectations for consumer-price gains.

Semin Soher Power, who heads Bank of Ireland Group Plc’s inflation-trading desk in Dublin, is forecasting that the year-on-year rate of increase in the U.S. consumer-price index will move above 7% in the first quarter. That’s above the most recent reading of 6.8% for November and higher than the 6.3% median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg for the first part of 2022.

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Inflation pressures “are much more growth-based right now” and not simply a result of higher energy prices or a reopening of economies from lockdown measures, …


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