After a tumultuous several months, gold prices have enjoyed a decent run up in Q4 2022. Recent price movement was helped by the dollar’s retreat, hopes that the Federal Reserve will slow down its aggressive monetary tightening, and renewed demand for the metal from emerging markets.
Is this the beginning of a multi-year bull market in gold? To be fair, gold investors have endured years of underperformance. Gold closed 2022 on two consecutive down years.
The World Gold Council, in its 2023 outlook report, said gold will enjoy a “stable but positive performance” in the year ahead. It’s not an outright bullish view, as central banks around the world will continue to maintain a strong bias to fight inflation—and keep interest rates high, a deterrent to gold price increasing. But recession is near inevitable in many economies. Gold typically performs very well in classical recessionary economic environment.
Another supportive fact pattern to a rebound in gold price is continued decline in the U.S. dollar. The World Gold Council’s research indicates that peaking dollar value has historically been positive for gold, with a positive spot price movement during the 12 months after the dollar has peaked.