JPMorgan 2020 2nd quarter guide to the markets.

by MasterCookSwag

So I don’t normally post these because I think most people are following it to begin with but with the influx of new posters I figured I’d throw it up.

A few key things I thought were interesting.

  • Value factor was the second worst performing factor in the first quarter, had the second highest volatility, and continues to underperformed over the last 15 years. The space is increasingly crowded and has seemingly been arbed out so much that value now has negative premium.
  • momentum once again is a top performer both in volatility, drawdown, and annualized returns.
  • In the last 40 years there has only been four that experienced an intra- year drop of 34% or more. 87, 02, 08, and 20, of those only 1987 ended with positive YOY returns.
  • Despite common rhetoric household debt service ratio is at 9.7% and has sustained lower levels than any other point since 1980.
  • YTD all asset classes are negative outside of Treasuries and MBS and some PMs. Treasuries are the best performer with average return of 8.2%. (Thanks MCS for constantly telling us treasuries are the best diversification for a retail investor!!)
  • with precipitous declines in international equities the United States now accounts for 57% of the world’s market cap.
  • Dividends made up a smaller portion of overall return that almost any other decade in history – likely due to share buybacks becoming a preferred method to distribute capital.
  • Large cap US and REITS finally dethrone Emerging Markets as the highest returning asset classes over the last 15 years.

There’s a whole bunch of other shit in there. Give it a lookie.

am.jpmorgan.com/blob-gim/1383407651970/83456/MI-GTM_2Q20-Final.pdf

 

Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.