Latest projections: 1st wave of Covid-19 in the US will not level off before a 2nd wave begins in mid-August

by GumbyTheGreen1

Sources: IHME, CDC, AMA, NYT

Tools: Google Sheets

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See the spreadsheet for data, sources, and detailed notes. COVID-19 data and projections are from the IHME. Flu data is from the CDC. The original data file containing the projections from June 5 can be downloaded here.

You can’t currently see the start of the second wave on the IHME’s website since those charts only plot through Aug 4. But their downloadable data file runs through Sep 1 for deaths and Aug 27 for hospitalizations, and the last 15-16 days of each contain the start of a new exponential growth curve. It’s subtle and hard to see on these charts but you can see it in the spreadsheet.

These charts can be compared to similar ones from April 29 and May 11.


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