Let’s do a check list of who won the argument since 1yr ago

via @Trinhnomics:

a) Leverage – China develeraged on the firm level but up gov’ level & growth slower so 🐻wins
b) FX – CNY weaker since last yr & worst in Asia in 1yr🐻💪🏻

c) GDP -Retail sales 📉, investment 📉, exports📉, & GDP flat🐂💪🏻

d) Politics – hard for me to comment 😬
e) Investment – FAI down & especially for private owned firms & industrial profits so 🐻💪🏻
f) Geopolitics – US-China trade war escalated (yes, I called for this 1yr ago when people were focused on their feelings about Trump) so 🐻💪🏻

g) Capital market – Included in A-share & weights rising + Bloomberg & Barclays Bond Index, which is a bigger deal; that said, EPFR data shows outflows & there’s price discovery recently due to Baoshang but been bad for small banks. Internalization of RMB 📉. I”ll give it to🐂💪🏻

 

 

h) Trade – export growth non-existent (ytd about 0.4% so not good) That said, others are worse like Korea. Imports contracting sharper so good for net trade but overall negative. Investment in sectors in manufacturing down so give this to 🐻💪🏻as Made in China faces resistance.

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