Overall macro correlations continue to rise pic.twitter.com/78aNvEv0sl
— Not Jim Cramer (@Not_Jim_Cramer) May 23, 2020
Many in U.S. won't return to gym or dining out, new poll shows t.co/cl4A8sQ8S2
— Los Angeles Times (@latimes) May 23, 2020
“The stakes can be higher for small businesses, which tend to operate on thinner profit margins and smaller cash reserves.”
ht @pboockvar t.co/X6ExwfZqFF
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) May 23, 2020
When "temporary" becomes 'permanent'.
"The vast majority of people laid off this spring assumed they’d be back at their jobs fairly soon. It is becoming more clear now that for many, that was wishful thinking."t.co/Wkfqv5MWPl
— FreeMarkets Are Dead-TQN-👑 (@TechQn) May 23, 2020
A snapshot of industries hit hardest by the pandemic, contrasted with those least affected: t.co/M0FCiUuRjX pic.twitter.com/qQFfdg7LZj
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) May 23, 2020
Don't tell me for one instance that the market has rallied on "Hopes" of a "V-Shaped Recovery" or on those things called 'Fundamentals and Earnings'.
It's Simply=The Fed pic.twitter.com/BypTP31RhD— FreeMarkets Are Dead-TQN-👑 (@TechQn) May 23, 2020
— M/I_Investments (@MI_Investments) May 24, 2020
Intelligencer recently spoke with Roubini about our impending doom.
You predict that the coronavirus recession will be followed by a lackluster recovery and global depression. The financial markets ostensibly see a much brighter future. What are they missing and why?
Well, first of all, my prediction is not for 2020. It’s a prediction that these ten major forces will, by the middle of the coming decade, lead us into a “Greater Depression.” Markets, of course, have a shorter horizon. In the short run, I expect a U-shaped recovery while the markets seem to be pricing in a V-shape recovery.
Of course the markets are going higher because there’s a massive monetary stimulus, there’s a massive fiscal stimulus. People expect that the news about the contagion will improve, and that there’s going to be a vaccine at some point down the line. And there is an element “FOMO” [fear of missing out]; there are millions of new online accounts — unemployed people sitting at home doing day-trading — and they’re essentially playing the market based on pure sentiment. My view is that there’s going to be a meaningful correction once people realize this is going to be a U-shaped recovery. If you listen carefully to what Fed officials are saying — or even what JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are saying — initially they were all in the V camp, but now they’re all saying, well, maybe it’s going to be more of a U. The consensus is moving in a different direction.
Your prediction of a weak recovery seems predicated on there being a persistent shortfall in consumer demand due to income lost during the pandemic. A bullish investor might counter that the Cares Act has left the bulk of laid-off workers with as much — if not more — income than they had been earning at their former jobs. Meanwhile, white-collar workers who’ve remained employed are typically earning as much as they used to, but spending far less. Together, this might augur a surge in post-pandemic spending that powers a V-shaped recovery. What does the bullish story get wrong?
Yes, there are unemployment benefits. And some unemployed people may be making more money than when they were working. But those unemployment benefits are going to run out in July. The consensus says the unemployment rate is headed to 25 percent. Maybe we get lucky. Maybe there’s an early recovery, and it only goes to 16 percent. Either way, tons of people are going to lose unemployment benefits in July. And if they’re rehired, it’s not going to be like before — formal employment, full benefits. You want to come back to work at my restaurant? Tough luck. I can hire you only on an hourly basis with no benefits and a low wage. That’s what every business is going to be offering. Meanwhile, many, many people are going to be without jobs of any kind. It took us ten years — between 2009 and 2019 — to create 22 million jobs. And we’ve lost 30 million jobs in two months.
So when unemployment benefits expire, lots of people aren’t going to have any income. Those who do get jobs are going to work under more miserable conditions than before. And people, even middle-income people, given the shock that has just occurred — which could happen again in the summer, could happen again in the winter — you are going to want more precautionary savings. You are going to cut back on discretionary spending. Your credit score is going to be worse. Are you going to go buy a home? Are you gonna buy a car? Are you going to dine out? In Germany and China, they already reopened all the stores a month ago. You look at any survey, the restaurants are totally empty. Almost nobody’s buying anything. Everybody’s worried and cautious. And this is in Germany, where unemployment is up by only one percent. Forty percent of Americans have less than $400 in liquid cash saved for an emergency. You think they are going to spend?