China’s Communist Party goes way of Qing Dynasty as debt hits limit
Nobody rings a bell at the top of the credit supercycle, to misuse an old adage. Except that this time somebody very powerful in China has done exactly that.
China watchers are still struggling to identify the author of an electrifying article in the People’s Daily that declares war on debt and the “fantasy” of perpetual stimulus.
Written in a imperial tone, it commands China to break its addiction to credit and take its punishment before matters spiral out of control. If that means bankruptcies must run their course, so be it.
The 11,000 character text – citing an “authoritative person” – was given star-billing on the front page. It described leverage as the “original sin” from which all other risks emanate, with debt “growing like a tree in the air”.
It warned of a “systemic financial crisis” and demanded a halt to the “old methods” of reflexive stimulus every time growth falters. “It is neither possible nor necessary to force economic growing by levering up,” it said.
Most think the author was either President Xi Jinping himself, or his right-hand man Liu He – who handles daily operations for the ‘Leading Group’, China’s version of the White House National Economic Council.
Capital Economics says budgeted funds must be disbursed by the end of this quarter under new finance ministry rules, implying another $310bn of bonds by late June.
The fiscal boost will be ‘front-loaded’. The money will pile up in accounts and flood the economy over the late summer. If the usual time-lags hold, the mini-boom will last for a few more months. Then the trouble will start.
Needless to say, markets may roll over long before the economy itself. This year the China bears may get their revenge, if they have any money left to play with. The rot in the country’s $7.7 trillion bond markets is metastasizing.
“The experience with the stock market shows how difficult it can be to contain a reversal in leveraged bets. In our view, a bond market crisis would be much more destructive,” he said.
With luck, the rest of us outside China will have three or four more months to order our own affairs before the storm gathers. Whether it is bumpy landing, a hard landing, or a crash landing, depends on who the “authoritative person” in Beijing turn out to be.
Morgan Stanley: China Slowdown Incoming
According to a just released very bearish note by Morgan Stanley’s chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets, which picks up on the risk factors unleashed by China’s dramatic slowdown the recent pick-up in global growth is temporary, and flags “greater risks that the slowdown arrives even sooner than August.”
“If we think China growth softens again over the summer, the question for markets is how far ahead of this prices react.”
His conclusion: “the risks are rising that now is the time”
INSIDER SAYS GET PREPARED NOW! Insider Claims Elite Engineering Total Financial Collapse
Mainstream news outlets are already starting to use the phrase “Economic Collapse” to describe what is going on in some areas of our world right now.
Excellent economy crash timeline here that matches:
IMF: Brexit would bring stock martket crash and houses prices will plummet
– Lagarde insists the IMF’s view on Brexit is completely independent. Brexit impact would be ‘negative and substantial’.
– EU referendum: IMF to release bombshell report warning of Brexit days before vote. IMF warns of substantial Brexit risk to UK economy.
– Brexit could spell end for farming and car industry, says transport secretary. Farming and the car industry could disappear from Britain like coal mining in the 1980s because of the financial shock of leaving the EU, Patrick McLoughlin, the transport secretary, has warned.
– On Monday, Mr. Cameron asserted that Britain’s exit from the EU could herald fresh conflicts across the continent, with some interpreting his comments to mean that Britain may find itself within a third world war due to leaving the EU.
– The Bank of England has given its starkest warning yet that a UK vote to leave the EU could hit the economy. Mark Carney, the Bank’s governor, warned that the risks of leaving “could possibly include a technical recession”. Prime Minister David Cameron said the warning amounted to “a very clear message” of the dangers of Brexit.
WHY Is SOROS BUYING UP MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GOLD BULLION?
Devestation in Venezuela: A snapshot of what happens in an economic collapse
‘The death of a baby is our daily bread’: Devastation in Venezuela’s hospitals as economy collapses
BARCELONA, Venezuela — By morning, three newborns were already dead.
The day had begun with the usual hazards: chronic shortages of antibiotics, intravenous solutions, even food. Then a blackout swept over the city, shutting down the respirators in the maternity ward.
Doctors kept ailing infants alive by pumping air into their lungs by hand for hours. By nightfall, four more newborns had died.
“The death of a baby is our daily bread,” said Dr. Osleidy Camejo, a surgeon in the nation’s capital, Caracas, referring to the toll from Venezuela’s collapsing hospitals.
The economic crisis in this country has exploded into a public health emergency, claiming the lives of untold numbers of Venezuelans. It is just part of a larger unraveling here that has become so severe it has prompted President Nicolás Maduro to impose a state of emergency and has raised fears of a government collapse.
Hospital wards have become crucibles where the forces tearing Venezuela apart have converged. Gloves and soap have vanished from some hospitals. Often, cancer medicines are found only on the black market. There is so little electricity that the government works only two days a week to save what energy is left.
At the University of the Andes Hospital in the mountain city of Mérida, there was not enough water to wash blood from the operating table. Doctors preparing for surgery cleaned their hands with bottles of seltzer water.
“It is like something from the 19th century,” said Dr. Christian Pino, a surgeon at the hospital.