Sending more U.S. troops to Europe could deter Russia from invading Ukraine. Or, it could provoke Russia to retaliate.
Exactly how American troops are deployed against Russia can profoundly affect whether their presence deters Moscow from aggression, or escalates the crisis, according to a new study by U.S. think tank RAND.
“Our research indicates that U.S. forces positioned in Europe are associated with the deterrence of malign activities in competition as well as armed conflict,” the study concluded. “Drawdowns of U.S. forces could threaten to undermine that deterrent, while a sharp increase in the number of U.S. forces—especially if they are present in substantial numbers and positioned in close proximity to Russia—are likely to provoke hostile measures directed at the host countries, at least in the short term.”
“Our research also suggests that small numbers of forces positioned in vulnerable states (such as NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence forces) are unlikely by themselves to provoke severe reactions,” RAND also noted. “However, any initiative to reduce or withdraw U.S. forces from these small, tripwire deployments likely would signal decreasing U.S. commitment to the region and thus potentially embolden Moscow.”
The study comes just as Russia has recognized the independence of the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in what most of the world still considers eastern Ukraine. Russia has moved “peacekeeping” troops into secessionist areas in what may presage a full-scale Russian invasion and occupation of Ukraine, while the West has retaliated with economic sanctions against Russia. The U.S. is also reinforcing its forces in Europe with troops and aircraft…
www.19fortyfive.com/2022/02/study-more-u-s-troops-in-europe-could-deter-or-provoke-russia/