My case as a Bear | Prediction.

by chengslator

Figure I’ll try to give my two cent. I won’t make it long cause I like to make things simple.
-Vaccine timeline is actually longer than you think. You can play around with the following to see an rough estimate. Anything at the end of the year is highly highly unrealistic.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html

-On a daily chart. S&P 500 and QQQ is showing a falling wedge. Bears have been gaining ground aggressively. Although support is holding right now, I dont’ believe that this would hold true in the next week.

-Our US gov is going to dick around and not give you a stimulus for a bit. (Chances are medium here.)
Even if they do it would be modest at best.

-We priced in everything for when vaccines does happen. Although I think that’s just a dream that we all had. I believe people are going to come into a realization that our economy are getting hit pretty hard. Once people stop living in a tech dream, which I believe already started happening on Sep 4th. Correctly it’s holding together, because some people refuse to come out just yet.

-Any grounds that tech can gain is already priced in. It will be much harder for bulls to gain ground in current condition. You want bulls to gain ground, some magical vaccine deal gotta come in…. I doubt that. Even if vaccine were to gain ground, the money will flow back into airline, oil, etc.

-QQQ was holding ground for earnings, and random tech events. (Apple day, TSLA battery etc). Nothing holding this up next week. Sorry.

My thoughts:
-Take your profit aggressively for bulls. (Daily)
-Bears, hold your shorts.

This coming week:

Monday: Baby bull day.

Tuesday: Consolidation

Weds: Bear

Thursday: Bear

Friday Bear

Edited: Shorted : TSLA 420, yes I know the irony. Thanks to you guys, I have since updated my stance on the Vaccine, and it shows that it might be possible to have it earlier. Although I still have my remarks in regarding it. -vaccine is bad for tech -hard for tech to hold current growth level with rona still in play. Since most of the users who needs it already started in Q2. Q3 earning will slow down, and Q4 would be worst. I expect a correction, then buy in. No timeline mate~

Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.