by Chris Black
LOAD ZE WAR FUD!
NATO announces major new deployment t.co/D8kWLj5Amj
— Angie Skys 8 (@AngieSkys) January 24, 2022
There is a near-zero chance of a Russian invasion in the Ukraine. They know from their experience in the Middle East and Chechnya, and the West’s recent experience in the Middle East, you cannot fight an insurgency. Unlike Crimea which is mostly ethnically Russian, Ukraine is split 50/50 between the pro-EU west and pro-Russian east.
The West wants Ukraine to integrate into the EU and join NATO to act as a bulwark on Russia’s border, whereas Russia wants it to remain as a buffer state.
The West is actively trying to install a pro-democracy regime by supporting the Western Ukranian political party, which Russia is responding to by destabilising the country.
Russia’s strategy is effectively “if we can’t have it, nobody can” because they know that an invasion of Ukraine would be a huge waste of time and resources. Since the West cannot back down and Russian cannot invade, Ukraine will destabilise leading to a West v. East civil war (and a lot of dead Ukranians). The Russian troop build-up on the Ukranian border is one part saber-rattling and one part containment in case the violence spills over into Russia’s border region.
Ukraine produces a large amount of Europe’s grain so those markets should expect a supply shortage after the civil war erupts. They also have a large metallurgical industry.
Once it becomes clear the Russian invasion is just fud, tech stocks and crypto will rebound as investors flood back in to risk-on assets (doubly so if the fed continues QE or doesn’t come out as heavily on inflation which seems likely).
**War preps
U.S. Orders Family Members of Embassy Staff to Leave Ukraine
Israel said preparing for potential need to evacuate Ukrainian Jews in case of war
EU to weigh €1B aid package for Ukraine
— owhy3 (@owhy3) January 24, 2022
There’s no solid evidence that Russia is planning to invade the Ukraine, at least not without the Ukrainians attacking first.
My guess is that the Kremlin is strategically moving some chess pieces to the borders in hopes of triggering hysteria from the neurotic Jewish media and incompetent foreign policy establishment in the US.
The goal is to cause a clash of interests inside the NATO camp. It’s already happening with Germany refusing to go along with Washington’s escalation.
Germany needs Russian natural gas. It’s not in Western Europe’s interest to get involved in the Ukraine border conflict. It’s not really in America’s interest either.
But nobody in Washington wants to accept the reality that there are now other superpowers in the world.
If a war does happen, there will be some brief resistance from militia groups that will buy Volodymyr Zelensky enough time to collect all the money he looted and escape to Miami to live next door to evacuated Afghan government officials.
Then it will be over.