Next Great Financial Crisis Will Begin in Emerging Markets. Watch the ETF Called “EMB” It’s Rapidly Approaching a Dangerously Low Level.

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Near-term liquidity in EM is a big problem. Several factors are having an adverse impact, but some of that is improving. EM EXD technicals are better now, long-term fundamentals are good, spreads have risen far more in EM than in HY and institutional mandates have not ceased, but risks are high. Dealer liquidity has fallen sharply while the market doubled in 6 years. Compared to last year or even to January 2018, dealers are less able to position the size clients need for three main reasons. First, there are fewer dealers than previously. Several major dealers have substantially reduced the size of their EM business and some have retreated from EM altogether. Second, the higher the volatility, the smaller the size of dealer trading books, making it extremely difficult for the Street to buy large positions. Third, over the last five years, EM-dedicated managers have become so large that the trade sizes that can be done in these illiquid markets are inconsequential to performance of a large fund compared to the market impact for trying.

h/t mark000

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