No evidence of global warming increasing frequency of U.S. hurricanes

by Dr. Eowyn

In a recent tweet, former Australian prime minister, the harridan Kim Campbellgleefully said she’s “rooting for” Hurricane Dorian to make a “direct hit” on President Trump’s home at Mar-a-Lago, Florida. Campbell justifies her malicious wish, claiming that Trump’s refusal to “tackle” climate change and his plan to “remove limits on methan” are “making hurricanes more destructive”.

Campbell’s claim that man-made “climate change” is making hurricanes more destructive is exemplified in a recent New Republic article by meteorologist Eric Holthaus, in which he asserts that “as the Gulf of Mexico waters warm because of climate change, early-season hurricanes…could become more common.”

But in a guest post for Watts Up With That?, using what he calls “actual historical data” of the number of early season (June/July) landfalling hurricanes to strike the U.S., Bob Vislosky, Ph.D., points out that there simply is no empirical support for the claim that the number of hurricanes had increased since 1868.

Commenting on the chart below, Vislosky wrote that “despite 150+ years of global warming the frequency of early season hurricanes has actually declined by a small (but probably insignificant) amount, as evidenced by the dashed blue least-squares trend line. Certainly there is no clear evidence to support the…claim that they’re becoming more common.

 

Vislosky also highlights Eric Holthaus’ “blatant cherry picking and misrepresentation” of data to suit his purpose.

In his New Republic piece, Holthaus states that “in the 168 years of hurricane records, a July hurricane in Louisiana has only happened three times, and all of those occurrences have been within the past 40 years,” implying that climate change is causing the early-season July hurricanes since they all happened in just the last 40 years.

But Vislosky points out that although “on the surface” Holthaus’ assertion is factually correct, it is misleading because Holthaus focused solely on July hurricanes. A different picture, however, emerges if one includes not just July hurricanes, but ALL early-season hurricanes (in June and July) to strike Louisiana. Here’s the list:

  1. June 1886 (Unnamed, Cat 2)
  2. June 1934 (Unnamed, Cat 2)
  3. June 1957 (Audrey, Cat 3)
  4. July 1979 (Bob, Cat 1)
  5. July 1997 (Danny, Cat 1)
  6. July 2005 (Cindy, Cat 1)

The list shows that:

  • There is no overall trend in June/July hurricanes hitting Louisiana.
  • Ass much as half of all early-season hurricanes to strike Louisiana actually occurred before instead of after 1960 before “climate change” and its warming effects.

In other words, as Vislosky puts it, “by purposefully omitting the June early-season hurricanes from his analysis,” Holthaus “is guilty of cherry-picking data in the least and more likely guilty of fraudulent reporting to promote an agenda. As a meteorologist, Holthaus should be embarrassed by his research. Guess he figured nobody would fact-check his work.”

See also:

~Eowyn

 

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