Near-term investing thoughts: No recession this year, but perhaps a “Black Monday”

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by MetricT There appear to be two schools of wildly-diverging thought among investors right now, and I’ve been thinking how to bridge the two camps, since I can’t imagine them being both so incredibly wrong given the amount of money on the line. On the pessimists side are numerous successful investors (Ray Dalio, Jeremy Grantham, Charlie Munger, … Read more

$spx valuation model

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$spx valuation model pic.twitter.com/JoEOkekI5I — Álvaro Oviedo (@alvoviedo) March 2, 2021 $spx put /call ratio pic.twitter.com/bvObjQ6nL2 — Álvaro Oviedo (@alvoviedo) March 2, 2021

Deflationary signs and warnings are everywhere now

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https://twitter.com/farrisbaba/status/1367102942768205824 Deflation. pic.twitter.com/K6hIutHNGL — The Macro Pulse (@TheMacroPulse) March 2, 2021 I agree. Although I think we will ultimately move away from the Ice Age deflationary quagmire, the reflation trade has gone too far, too soon. After a now fully discounted H1 GDP boom, a growth and Inflation slump towards the end of this year … Read more

Danielle DiMartino Booth: “Investors are putting full faith in the idea that there is indeed a free lunch and never a price to pay for the Fed’s largess and that is certainly how markets are trading. At some point you start to add up all these transitory items”

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"Investors are putting full faith in the idea that there is indeed a free lunch and never a price to pay for the Fed's largess and that is certainly how markets are trading. At some point you start to add up all these transitory items"#FBNhttps://t.co/WrStEUSzlB — Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) March 3, 2021  

Comex Has A Problem, Here’s Your Signs!

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by  J. Johnson via JS Mineset Great and Wonderful Tuesday Morning Folks, Late last night, I observed the hammer coming back to nail the precious metals lower. To me, the desperation is becoming more obvious by the day, as Gold reversed with the April contract at $1,725.50, up $2.50 after being dipped to $1,704.60 with the high to … Read more

FIRE LAWSUIT: STUDENT REPORTER SUES UNIVERSITY PRESIDENT FOR FORBIDDING JOURNALISM.

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Following Student Press Freedom Day, FIRE files a lawsuit on behalf of student newspaper and editor-in-chief against Haskell Indian Nations University and its president who issued “directive” forbidding routine newsgathering Federally-operated tribal university in Kansas shorted funding for student newspaper by over $10,000 without any explanation and ignored emails for months LAWRENCE, Kan., March 2, … Read more

China is sounding the alarm about a global market bubble

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https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/02/investing/china-banking-financial-bubble-intl-hnk/index.html One of China’s most powerful financial officials is sounding the alarm over a bubble in global markets. Guo Shuqing, the Communist Party boss at the People’s Bank of China, told reporters in Beijing on Tuesday that confidence in Chinese markets could be hit by volatility around the world. “We are really afraid the bubble … Read more

The U.S. national debt just surpassed $28 trillion…. Treasury yields jump… Bitcoin > 52,000

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https://twitter.com/SpencerKSchiff/status/1366882908179472385 Treasury yields jump https://t.co/NePSIx8Rj0 pic.twitter.com/0BGf1pl8UY — Bloomberg Markets (@markets) March 3, 2021 Drivers of the US bond market sell-off: (i) large fiscal stimulus timed to coincide with reopening of the US economy, making for a super-charged recovery; (ii) fiscal deficits (black) far above projected Fed QE buying (blue). Higher yields are a way to … Read more

IRS is set a trap for bitcoin and virtual currency investors on 2020 tax form

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The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is making it harder for taxpayers to conceal cryptocurrency transactions — whether intentionally or not — by adding a new question about it near the top of the new Form 1040. The form released last week asks: “At any time during 2020, did you receive, sell, send, exchange, or otherwise acquire any … Read more

Congressman Jim Jordan: In the next two weeks, House Democrats will try to radically change:

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In the next two weeks, House Democrats will try to radically change: -Election laws-Police laws-Gun laws-Immigration laws — Rep. Jim Jordan (@Jim_Jordan) March 2, 2021 🚨BREAKING: Sources in DC report that Congress will be voting on Biden’s extreme gun control legislation as early as next week. Possible that they will bypass committee process. Stay tuned, … Read more

Dr. Seuss books to stop being published because of racist imagery

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https://www.foxnews.com/us/dr-seuss-books-canceled-racist-imagery “These books portray people in ways that are hurtful and wrong,” Dr. Seuss Enterprises told The Associated Press in a statement. “Ceasing sales of these books is only part of our commitment and our broader plan to ensure Dr. Seuss Enterprises’ catalog represents and supports all communities and families,” the statement continued. I would … Read more

PRIVACY: Facebook Is Betting That Users Secretly Like Targeted Advertising.

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Facebook recently launched an ad campaign to defend personalized advertising against Apple’s new privacy measures. The campaign, called “Good Ideas Deserve to Be Found,” touts targeted ads as a boon for small businesses. Here’s one of the ads, which I found amusing, if perhaps not exactly in the way that Facebook intended. The ad push … Read more

MCDONALD’S RESPONSE TO MINIMUM WAGE HIKES TOTALLY UNDERCUTS THE ‘FIGHT FOR $15,’ NEW STUDY SHOWS:

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The push for a $15 federal minimum wage continues across the country. But new research shows that if the “Fight for $15” wins, the biggest loser may just be your wallet next time you want to chow down on a Big Mac or Egg McMuffin. A recently-released study reveals that past minimum wage hikes resulted in much higher menu … Read more

FBI Director Chris Wray Tells Congress Antifa Not Involved in Capitol Hill Riots, After FBI Literally Arrests Antifa Leader, John Sullivan, for Participating in Capitol Hill Riots

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by Sundance This is a rather remarkable soundbite all things considered. Today, during his congressional testimony FBI Director Chris Wray was asked whether Antifa members participated in the January 6th Capitol Hill riot.   Director Wray says the FBI “has seen no evidence” of Antifa participating.  However, on January 14th the FBI literally arrested Antifa leader John … Read more

HIDIN’ BIDEN: Psaki Says Biden Still Has No Plans To Hold A Press Conference While In Office Biden has simultaneously refused to meet with world leaders during his first days in office

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White House press secretary Jen Psaki confirmed Monday that unlike his predecessors, President Joe Biden will not be holding a live press conference in the near future, despite having been in office for over a month at this point. When asked if Biden had scheduled his first press conference yet, Psaki replied, “Not yet, but … Read more

State of Emergency In Kentucky! “Major Flooding” Submerges Towns, Including Mine, Evacuation Ordered

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After a weekend of torrential rain, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear declared a state of emergency on Monday. State officials activated the State Emergency Operations Center to aid with rescue efforts as major flooding was observed, according to Lexington Herald-Leader. The declaration activated the Kentucky National Guard to assist first responders in water rescues, deliver supplies, … Read more