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Volcker needed 20%. We may only need 6%. PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Overlay it on the 1970s and the path rhymes. Add the 10-year and the rhyme gets harder to ignore. That doesn’t mean we reprint the 1980 Fed fund rate. Debt, leverage, and interconnected markets are a different animal now. In … Read more
In the past 250 years the U.S. economy has absorbed spending on transformation technology equivalent to 25% of GDP before the bubble popped. The 1860s railroad bubble popped after $2.5 billion was spent, 25% of GDP The 1920s electrification bubble popped after $26.1 billion was spent, 25% of GDP The 1990s internet bubble popped after $1.5 trillion … Read more
Paul Tudor Jones in an Interview with Patrick Oshaughnessy sums up and connects the valuation pieces of the overall market well: “We’re 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%. If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, … Read more
Office of Government Ethics dropped the June list last weekend. 1,051 tickets. $78 million to $263 million. Defense names are in there. Energy names too. White House says a computer runs the book. That does not erase the timing. Boeing bought the same day the Navy handed Boeing $880 million. Palantir in and out around … Read more
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has awarded a $10.1 million contract to expand a rapid DNA testing program used to verify claimed family relationships during immigration enforcement operations, according to federal records. The one-year contract, awarded to Virginia-based SNA International LLC, began August 10 and runs through August 9, 2027. The work will support ICE … Read more
Thirty-seven people have died and almost 400 have been evacuated after a Russian drone strike hit a depot storing weapons for Ukraine’s military near a residential area on the outskirts of Kyiv. The strike caused shells, mines and drones to detonate late on Friday, triggering a blast that damaged nearby properties including a care home … Read more
PayPal was reportedly offered about $53 billion by Stripe and Advent. The board wanted more. The buyers walked. Now look at what happened. PayPal dropped roughly 13% on Friday. The interesting part isn’t the failed deal. It’s what the failed deal exposed. PayPal had climbed more than 40% this quarter, but a big part of … Read more
Graham warned about the point in a bull market when small, obscure companies suddenly become market darlings because investors believe they have discovered the next big thing. Look at what’s happening right now. Companies are adding AI to their story, changing their business descriptions and suddenly attracting investor attention that wasn’t there before. Arena Group … Read more
Only 14% of men are over 6’ tall. Slutting it up for one is not a badge of honor. Women are insane. https://t.co/TzfmqLm7Zx — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 29, 2026
Use of GLP-1 injectables for weight loss has more than doubled since early 2024 WASHINGTON, D.C. — After peaking at a record high of 39.9% in 2022, the U.S. adult obesity rate has gradually declined to 37.0% in 2025. This is a statistically meaningful decrease representing an estimated 7.6 million fewer obese adults compared with … Read more
Positioning isn’t about feelings though https://t.co/1WxnkBtvCU — Investor_NICK (@Investor_NICK_) August 29, 2026
At least 37 people have been killed after Russia attacked a Ukrainian ammunition depot with a drone as strikes on Kyiv continued for a third day. Fire erupted at the depot, in the village of Myla in Kyiv’s Bucha district, as more than 200 people evacuated their homes and 50 residential buildings were destroyed. Ukraine’s … Read more
THE US TREASURY AND THE FED ARE NOW AT WAR WITH EACH OTHER Scott Bessent wants yields down. Kevin Warsh is pushing them up. Neither side is winning. On August 19, Bessent doubled Treasury bond buybacks to $4 billion a week, aimed at the 10-year to 30-year part of the curve, specifically to force long … Read more
So, should we short until November? byu/Beginning_Sector_594 inwallstreetbets “The chart shows the historical seasonal pattern of the S&P Equal-Weight (SPW) during U.S. midterm election years (1990–2022). Historically, after the current point, the index tends to experience a stronger correction from August through early October, followed by a significant recovery starting in late October and gaining … Read more
Gold is getting hit by Warsh’s hawkish talk, but the money supply keeps climbing. If that divergence closes, gold has some catching up to do. Time to buy gold. Thesis is simple: More money supply, higher gold prices. They diverged earlier this year as markets expected a tighter policy under Kevin Warsh. But nothing has … Read more
Quick Read Memory is projected to capture 54% of the $1.56 trillion semiconductor market in 2026, nearly doubling its 27% share from 2025. Nvidia doubled its memory supply commitments to $279 billion in a single quarter, spreading obligations across fiscal years 2027 through 2029. AI has extended the memory cycle rather than ended it, as … Read more
The engineer who designed that house's column structure deserves a national medal. pic.twitter.com/PQgORN5LVq — Rishi Bagree (@rishibagree) August 28, 2026 update: they survived, family is safe. their building was built differently! https://t.co/TukflLofRx pic.twitter.com/1L7q5VnsGe — Alpha Vishal (@alphavishall) August 28, 2026
