US: Probability of a recession 6 months ahead -53%; Market pricing in almost a 60% probability of 3 (or more) additional Fed rate cuts this year –

US: Probability of a recession 6 months ahead. Activity augmented yield curve model: 53% – ⁦@SoberLook⁩ ⁦@OxfordEconomics⁩ ⁦@jemcrobie⁩ pic.twitter.com/qfIZqADUAR — Rob Hager (@Rob_Hager) August 15, 2019 Chart (@TheTerminal): Market pricing … Read more

Treasury is about to flood the market with debt to fund U.S.’s $1 trillion deficit — and that is a concern

www.marketwatch.com/story/the-us-treasury-is-about-to-flood-the-market-with-debt-to-fund-a-1-trillion-deficit-heres-why-that-is-a-worry-2019-08-15 Last month the U.S. Treasury laid out its plans to borrow $814 billion between July and December, after the Trump administration and Congress agreed to a two-year postponement of … Read more