For some reason, I forgot to check my favorite pre-recession indicator after the January Nonfarm Payrolls number was reported last Friday: “Working part time/economic reasons.”
See the chart below. its a “quarterly” chart, so the moves stand out a bit more, but Q1 is not looking very good at all right now. At the moment, it totally agrees with the “impending recession” prediction, and/or that we’re already in one.
This one is really pretty reliable over the years – as a slightly predictive and/or coincident indicator.
If I had been paying attention, I could have posted this last Friday!!