Recession: I Missed It!

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by Dave

For some reason, I forgot to check my favorite pre-recession indicator after the January Nonfarm Payrolls number was reported last Friday: “Working part time/economic reasons.”

See the chart below.  its a “quarterly” chart, so the moves stand out a bit more, but Q1 is not looking very good at all right now.  At the moment, it totally agrees with the “impending recession” prediction, and/or that we’re already in one.

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This one is really pretty reliable over the years – as a slightly predictive and/or coincident indicator.

If I had been paying attention, I could have posted this last Friday!!

 

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