Signs of weak growth keep popping up, 10yr Breakeven not buying what S&P selling

Beijing Dithers as the Economy Declines: China’s slowdown is more acute than appreciated, and December’s policy summit failed to set a clear direction.

China’s annual economic policy summit has come and gone, leaving a wet lump of coal in place of stimulus hopes. Beijing will have to do better if it wants to steer the country to another year of robust growth.

The economy started slowing in September, and has only worsened since then. Consumption tax revenue was up 16.3 percent year-to-date as of that month. In the following two months, it collapsed, recording declines of 62 percent and 71 percent from a year earlier. Value-added tax revenue has also turned negative in the past three months. All this is a good sign that the economy’s deterioration is more rapid and pronounced than the government has acknowledged.

Americans stopped buying homes in 2018, mortgage lenders are getting crushed, and an economic storm could be brewing

China Daily/ReutersIt’s too soon to panic, but a deeper drought in housing is bad news for just about everybody.

  • The US housing market took a dark turn in 2018, as homebuying fell off a cliff and mortgage lenders saw a steep decline in applications, originations, and profits.

  • Interest rates are partly to blame for the slide in housing, but that’s only half of the equation, according to analysts.

  • It’s too soon to panic, but a deeper drought in housing is bad news for just about everybody, not just the banks.

  • Significant housing declines have foreshadowed nine of the 11 post-war US recessions, according to UBS.

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