Soft landing is off the table. Recession incoming

 

“The Fight against Inflation May Take Somewhat Longer”: IMF

Whether it is Europe’s inflation struggle, China’s real estate crisis or global protectionism, Gita Gopinath is skeptical about the immediate future. In an interview, though, the deputy head of the IMF also sees small glimmers of hope.

Recession Watch: The Yield Curve is the Most Inverted Since the Early 1980s

On the dismal retail sales report on Wednesday, the yield curve steepened towards deeper inversions.

The US Consumer Has Cracked: Discover Plunges After “Shocking” Charge-Off Forecast

First, the total amount of credit card debt hit a new all time high, which however was to be expected from one of the most consistently increasing series across all US economic data, and one which predictably is correlated to the US savings rate which is at all time lows.