March 2,2020
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Current infected 89,254
Total dead 3,048
Total recovered 45,393
Total showing symptoms and getting treated 48,441
Some calcs.
3048 divided by 48,441 times 100 is 6.292 percent current kill rate.
This kill rate is more than 12 times “standard” flu.
Some standard flu types are :
H1N1 – Asian Influenza A Virus, Swine flu
H3N2 – Avian Influenza A Virus
H5N1 – Avian Influenza A Virus
H7N9 – Anhui Influenza Wildtype A Virus
RSV – Respiratory Syncytial Virus
Coxsacie Type B3 virus – Hand,Foot, and Mouth Disease
Cytomegalovirus – fever blisters and or jaw cancer.
SARS Corona virus
89254 divided by 48,441 times 100 is 54.27 per cent.
Global health care system overloaded.
Assumption – A very high R0 factor of greater than 6.0
plugged into the population formula for the increase in virus will show
you the date of global infection.
Currently the virus doubles the people infected every 2.4 days.
This number can go up or down depending upon efforts.
Current world population is 7,768,183,780 from worldometers.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
7,768,183,780 times .006292 is 53,755,832.
Because the virus will build its own “fire break line” at some point
in time (it runs out of people to infect) and counter efforts are
being made by all or most nations, the number might be cut in half to only
26,877,916 dead.
The 1918 spanish flu killed about 20 to 50 million.
https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic
Finally, any vehicle (airplanes, boats, cars, trains) that has carried a infected active person is now a spreader of the infection.
How do you dis-infect the ventliation system of an airplane?
The next set of passengers to board the airplane will become infected when
the ventliation system is started.
Houston, we have a problem.
h/t Kingman-Art