S&Pop

by T2H

Assumption: Bubble to burst duration is a time measure of the masses “loss of faith” in the market.

Dot Com Bubble/Burst

• 8/2000 – 9/2002 (peak to trough)
• 25 months duration

RE Bubble/Burst

• 10/2007 – 2/2009 (peak to trough)
• 16 months duration

16/25 = 0.64 (duration reduction ratio between events)

x/16 = 0.64 (applying reduction ratio)

x = 10.2 months

Assuming bubble peaked in 9/2018 and the ratio holds, +10 months gives 7/2019…maximum economic pain just in time for the elections….

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