SPY below 205 by 4/17 and VIX to (atleast) 95 by the End of April

by scarvesandsuspenders

Here is the DD.

imgur.com/G2eoTSs

Here is a post made that shows the striking resemblance between the recent stock movements and the 1929 crash.

Interestingly, a 27% drop from here would put us right at my support level (i will get to that in a second).

Here we go. My DD.

squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix

I have been for the most part ignoring DPI on this drop. Historically it has been very accurate but on this drop it has been acting extremely wonky. Big buys and big sells where they shouldn’t be and not predicting the market correctly. For this reason i haven’t been offering it more than a passing glance.

GEX however is crucial. The lower GEX dips the more room we have to drop (and the faster). I expect some real violence in the market so I am keeping a very close eye on VIX.

/ES weekly: www.tradingview.com/x/t0ipbVoY/

You can clearly see how crucial of a zone this area is based on how price continuously hangs around this S/R level. We have been rejecting it consistently and i believe we are on the verge of breaking to a lower level. If we follow the great depression chart a 27% drop would put us at my 1850 (right around my next crucial S/R level). I see support kicking in somewhere around 1900.

/ES Daily:

/ES Daily

You can see the volume compressing as we prepare for the next big spike. Chaikin is up to that critical zone of 0 and is breaking back negative now. Price has been in a bear flag and consistently rejecting that 2630 level. BB and kijun are adding pressure and pushing price down.

/ES 4HR

/ES 4hr

Here you can see the price break out of the 4HR and BB have been squeezing for the big move down. Volume breaking out chaikin breaking down, RSI breaking down, MACD breaking down. Essentially all systems go.

CL is losing its battle with $20 support. I have been saying it will go to 10 for awhile now and that is becoming more of a reality by the day. /ES will follow…..

10 year treasury is on its last leg as well….

VIX is looking pretty and holding support in the area. This will look like a shit show but /VX 08′ is the top left, /VX bottom left is now, VIX top right is 08′, VIX bottom right is now. You can see the striking similarities and what will lead to the massive put buying that will launch VIX to 95.

VIX and /VX comparison now vs 08′

Now i would like to make this call more interesting. I wanna make a ban bet on this VIX portion of my play. If VIX doesn’t touch 95 by the end of April i will take a one day ban from posting for every person who comments “BAN”. However fair is fair, if VIX does touch 95 you get banned for an entire month. Over one million of you and only one of me so i gotta even out the odds.)

This is a win-win scenario for me. I don’t have to deal with everyone here who acts like an idiot if i lose and if i win i get a much quieter, much less stupider, subreddit for a week (and hopefully a humbler one). BONUS: Mods have to deal with the shit show that would be required to pull this off and everyone knows. Mods are gay.

Have fun, good luck, AND CHANGE THE DAMN LOGO.

This is simply my opinion. I am not your financial advisor and this is not meant for you to take as advice in order to position yourself in the market.

 

 

Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.