State by State Update on COVID-19 Testing, Positives, and Deaths and where we go from here.

by trevre

Below is a state by state summary of the testing, positives, and deaths to date based on the data from covidtracking.com/

Minnesota has take a turn for the worse. I wish I had some good news but we need to be honest with ourselves. I thought we would be farther along by now but not much has changed in testing since the end of March (~150K/day). Testing is key to and the easiest short term way to get out of stay and home orders. There appears to now be a web of complications with no reliable plan or prediction to when and how testing can be expanded. fivethirtyeight.com/features/there-are-not-enough-covid-19-tests-there-are-also-too-many-covid-19-tests/

There are two states with enough testing (152 tests/100k/day), MS (in spurts) and RI (consistently). This is largely due to small populations and opening new dedicated testing centers.

www.sunherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242153426.html

www.abc6.com/according-to-harvard-study-ri-is-only-state-doing-enough-daily-testing-to-reopen-economy/

Unfortunately this week we also saw the first small scale, preliminary, but game changing serum (antibody testing) results in two counties in California (2.5 to 5.6% exposure rate) and one in rural Colorado (0.7 to 2.3% exposure rate). Roughly that translates to 2.3 to 18M potential exposures in the US, (3 to 26 times the current observed cases (~750K). The silver lining to this is that the mortality rate (currently 4.8% for the country) may also be 3 to 26 times lower (0.2 to 1.6%).

In plain english, we’ll probably not catch up in months, particularly if we start to open up parts of the country without adequate testing or mitigation measures.

www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/17/coronavirus-much-more-widespread-previously-though/

www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serology-testing-la-countyhttp://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

reason.com/2020/04/17/antibody-tests-in-colorado-highlight-the-huge-gap-between-confirmed-covid-19-cases-and-total-infections/

This is a failure. There would be far fewer deaths, hospitalizations, and economic effects had we had even the slightest semblance of transparency, continuity, and leadership at the federal level. Not all blame falls at the top, but the buck stops there.

www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/what-really-doomed-americas-coronavirus-response/608596/

This continues to be a failure. Only today are we hearing about the development of a real, specific, measureable, and effective plan from Harvard. History tells us our political leaders won’t be able to handle the subtleties of implementing it.

reason.com/2020/04/20/a-plan-to-use-massive-covid-19-testing-to-reopen-the-economy/

I’ve run out of space but this only touches on the problems in the US, ignoring the avalanche of tragedy befalling or soon to befall the rest of the world.

Stay safe. Keep checking the data. Keep demanding a detailed comprehensive plan for the country to get out of this. Keep fighting misinformation.

Covidtracking.com US COVID-19 Testing Summary

Covidtracking.com state by state statistics

 

DAILY UPDATE Coronavirus % growth for APRIL 21

Below is a summary of trends from today (as of late EST), for the USA, and how it compares to Global.

The data is available in more detail here.

Global

Confirmed Cases growth is 📈:

  • Increasing to 3.31%
  • Increasing by 82,097
  • Total confirmed cases is 2,563,384

Deaths growth is 📈:

  • Increasing to 4.2%
  • Increasing by 7,205
  • Total deaths is 177,641

Death Rate growth is mixed:

  • 20.5% recovery rate (📉)
  • 6.5% WHO CFR (📈)
  • 11.0% incubation rate (📉)

USA

Confirmed Cases growth is 📈:

  • Increasing to 5.03%
  • Increasing by 39,460
  • Total confirmed cases is 823,786

Deaths growth is 📈:

  • Increasing to 6.5%
  • Increasing by 2,751
  • Total deaths is 44,845

Death Rate growth is mixed:

  • 37.4% recovery rate (📈)
  • 5.2% WHO CFR (📈)
  • 10.2% incubation rate (📉)

preview.redd.it/r2u61h1ciau41.png?width=1334&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5001081b6eb78298dbe20c2fbf114548c557cc5

preview.redd.it/remkx8iciau41.png?width=1332&format=png&auto=webp&s=f8bea6cfe2495b94d39b759c64f99488ac54b276

Disclaimer: Please take from this what you choose. I’m also capturing individual country data, although that may still be too small to gather enough meaning from the % growth apart from Germany, Iran, Italy, Spain, France, the UK, and the US.

I am just breaking down official numbers, and although the official numbers may or may not reflect exactly how many cases remain unreported, I try to remain unopinionated in these reportings and leave the opinions and analysis to the comments.