Always seeing people using fake technical analysis/news articles on Twitter, WSB, and everywhere else trying to be the next Michael Burry. Obviously, every single one of them has been wrong so far.
Here’s the reality of it. If you are trying to predict the next market crash – you are either dumb, overconfident or both. I’ve been TAing all of the indexes on a daily basis for a long time – and the charts have been objectively bullish ever since last April. In fact, they have been like that for a while. SPY just bull flags perpetually aside from a few outliers like last March, December 2018, etc. Obviously we don’t always go up this fast – but there is a good reason I don’t swing puts much.
Pretty much every time SPY (or any other index) get’s close to breaking an important trendline or level – it bounces. There is some stick save at the end of the day or the end of the week – every time. The only reason people think their charts are saying death is because they are deluded by their own biases – or don’t understand how to use technical analysis.
Now – there are ways to tell when you can gain an edge in predicting a SPY correction. For one, wait until we form a bearish continuation pattern. This means we’ve dropped a few percent – and then we’ve formed a bear flag, bear pennant, etc. This does not happen often. We usually get violent bounces, rather than sideways chop upwards. Bears fall for it every single time. Either way – these patterns do not indicate a major market crash, they simply mean we will make a routine move downwards – there is no pattern that indicates a major market crash. These are outliers and the whole point of technical analysis is gaining an edge in market movements by looking at patterns that have repeated hundreds of thousands of times since the market was a thing.
If anyone wants me to go into more details of why the charts have been bullish – let me know – but I know that will make the post too long for you retards to read.
Lastly – if you can read it on the news online – it’s priced in. You aren’t going to predict the next Black Swan with a Yahoo Finance Article. Honestly – just stop trying to predict anything. Way too many people here think they can predict a move in a stock or the market with 100% accuracy. You can’t, no matter who you are. You can only gain an edge. What Burry did was not only a gamble, but an extremely rare scenario.
No one knows when the next major crash will be or when the party will stop. Just go with the flow and don’t be the last one holding the bag. When the trend flips, we will know – but for the last 10 years we have pretty much gone straight up. No one cares about your bear fan fiction.
Edit: For the record, I’m not saying the market is going to go up forever. I’m just saying don’t let your ego make you think you can predict when it will stop.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.