by okie1 So for the third time in a year, people are celebrating because they think this time rates have finally peaked, and I tend to think this is actually shaping up to be yet another, bigger fakeout. Yes, the fed’s …
Morgan Stanley sees the potential for a technical bounce in stocks, but Wilson feels earnings estimates remain far too high and fundamentals will eventually drag prices lower. pic.twitter.com/18vViX5BNF — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) March 6, 2023 High yield spreads appear …
By Graham Summers, MBA The markets have reached a new level of stupidity. Stocks are exploding higher based on inflation coming in at 7.1% Year over Year. This is apparently great news because Wall Street expected the number to be …
by Chris Black This ride is just getting started. This is not the 1980s, and these normal methods of raising interest rates are not going to do anything but make it all much worse. https://twitter.com/gchahal/status/1597558950689648640 Frankly, the plan to stop …
Ed Hyman, chairman of Evercore ISI, pointed to many indicators that 9.1% might have been the top. Gasoline prices have fallen around 10% from their mid-June high point of $5.02 a gallon, according to AAA. Wheat futures prices have fallen …
Home Price Disconnect Notes National is the Case-Shiller national home price index. 10-City represents the weighted average of the cities in the first chart. CPI is the Consumer Price Index OER stands for Owner’s Equivalent Rent. It is the single largest component …
by rb109544 PPI flows down to CPI over about 3-6 months…supply chain worsens every day. Inflation hasn’t peaked and won’t until CPI catches PPI more or less. Look at far right on plots! For the past 15 months, producer prices have …
BY JOHN RUBINO Cars used to be the quintessential depreciating asset. Drive a new one off the lot and you were immediately down 40%. Subsequent declines were slower, but they never really stopped. But that was before Fed stimulus escaped from …
Here is one chart to capture 2021 the year in risk. RISK ON peaked last February and made a second lower high in November. Wave 3 EVERYTHING down has already started. The December bounce was just wave ii retracement. pic.twitter.com/LpIoiPDqqr …
THE YEAR OF 1/6th AND 5/6ths For the @markets newsletter, I wrote my big take for 2021. Basically some years are a "year of two halves". This year, on the other hand was all about January and February vs. the …
A fatal flaw is saying "3.6% is still good" or "above trend." The growth rate almost never flatlines or moves sideways at "trend" The next major asset allocation pivot will come when the growth rate in the economy sustainably …
credit spreads have been under pressure all month pic.twitter.com/sqB0RXzdKV — DeFi, TradeFi, venture (@swaptions) November 30, 2021 Home prices have peaked pic.twitter.com/I03SNBfMV0 — zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 30, 2021 Fed says Recession Incoming https://twitter.com/pivotanalytics/status/1465765768432336901 $DAX 2000 VS 2021 SCARY ? pic.twitter.com/pO16J7lmcK …
*Global liquidity via central banks has already peaked and now in sharp decline ~ indicating world business conditions and growth to follow downwards The rate of change is what matters – thus w/ liquidity in steep decline = increasing …
*Attn: for more info on today’s ‘inflation fade’ ~ here’s an article I wrote 3 weeks ago highlighting that the inflation trade was grossly overcrowded, leading to diminished upside (remember it’s about magnitude of correctness > frequency of correctness)https://t.co/LOgQZvijph — …
#PeakEarnings….and these projections assume no recession despite entire world already slowing pic.twitter.com/woQNKWGb7V — M/1_LP (@MI_Investments) January 1, 2019 🇺🇸 As a reminder, five Federal Reserve indexes of regional #manufacturing all slumped in December, the first time they’ve fallen in unison …
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter But prices are surging. Freight shipment volume across all modes of transportation – truck, rail, air, and barge – rose 8.2% in September, compared to a year earlier, according to the Cass Freight Index. While this is …
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter Sales volume drops to lowest for any Sept going back to 2005. Condo prices drop to Oct 2016 level. House prices drop 11% from Peak Trump Bump. It’s not fun anymore. This is a phenomenon that …
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter This is why the trucking business is so cyclical – and you can see it coming. Trucking is a cyclical business. And there are now signs that the phenomenal surge this year has peaked, and while it remains …
For all the members of the Church of #Bitcoin $BTC, why do you think futures trading on the CME (settled in dollars of course) or an #ETF is positive for BTC? Do you think it is a coincidence that BTC …
https://twitter.com/OccupyWisdom/status/999665430351482881 Delinquency rates on store-branded credit cards have reached a seven-year high, according to credit bureau Equifax, possibly signaling broader troubles for household debt down the road. https://t.co/L4dWkVGF5C — Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) May 24, 2018 https://twitter.com/OccupyWisdom/status/999665966006095872 Delinquency rates on store-branded …
By Lance Gaitan I write about inflation extensively because it directly affects bond prices. When inflation rises, bond prices fall, and vice-versa. (And, of course, my readers book profits off those price moves via Treasury Profits Accelerator.) Wholesale (producer) prices usually foreshadow what’s …
Global economy peaked? | Michael Roberts Blog Optimism for global economic growth remains. But the acceleration in 2017 from the low growth rates experienced in 2015-6 now seems to have paused in the first quarter of 2018. To greet the …
via Markit Global PMI slips further from near seven-year high Eurozone economies see strongest expansion, though North America closes the gap. Growth remains lacklustre in Asia Inflationary pressures remain elevated, and intensify in North America Global manufacturing growth slowed to a …
by Kimble Charting CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE Above looks at 2 & 5-year yields over the past 30-years. The rally over the past couple of years has both of them testing 25-year falling resistance line (A) at each (1). While testing …
Global economic growth has peaked, says World Bank Global growth appears to have peaked, with demographics, a lack of investment, a slowing in productivity gains and tightening monetary policy placing limits on economic expansion, the World Bank said. The world’s …
Ageing populations, low investment and tightening monetary policy limit expansion via Shawn Donnan Global growth appears to have peaked, with demographics, a lack of investment, a slowing in productivity gains and tightening monetary policy placing limits on economic expansion, the World …
By Michael Snyder The absurdity that we are witnessing in the financial markets is absolutely breathtaking. Just recently, a good friend reminded me that the Dow peaked at just above 14,000 before the last stock market crash, and stock prices …