The Case Against Moderna

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by puzzlesrus

There’s been a lot of talk (most of it bullish) about Moderna, the biotech company with the first Covid-19 vaccine in the pipeline. I think a vaccine can be developed, but there doesn’t seem to be enough skepticism about Moderna’s chance of pulling it off. Even after today’s 10 percent drop, the company has a $26 billion market cap, more than 3x the pre-Covid-19 value, which was itself speculative.

The gist of the bear case is that:

-No one has ever developed an mRNA vaccine (it’s cool tech that may or may not work) and Moderna has never brought a drug to market.

-Moderna hasn’t published much data about any of its research and nothing meaningful about the corona virus vaccine.

-The phase 1 trial is just a safety trial — it’s a not big hurdle for a vaccine candidate to pass. The results that n = 8 test subjects had neutralizing antibodies is a far bigger deal and some of yesterday’s run up was justified. But there were no numbers and there’s always reasons for skepticism when you don’t have a control arm ( as is the case in a phase 1 trial).

-Again mRNA vaccines are thought to be less stable than protein based vaccines. A protein based vaccine is a safer bet.



Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence.


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