The most important number in the world right now is the forecast for US GDP growth in Q3: +15%

by mark000

Q1 first estimate announced today is -5%.
Current Q2 forecast is -30%. This is the development in late Feb/March (back around then the forecast changed from positive to -20% because OMG pandemics are Bad!) that caused the stockmarkets to crash -35% below the recent all time highs.
A Q3 GDP growth of +15% is why markets are so upbeat the last few weeks. All the current hope and market calmness revolves around this very positive event occurring. If the outlook deteriorates, this number will tank and things might get a lot worse than they are now…
You can track it here:
www.cnbc.com/rapid-update/
[Scroll to bottom of page and find the Median 2020Q3 number.]

 

They’re goddamned delusional. Anyone who has even the foggiest sense of how this thing works will quickly realize that Q3 is going to be worse than Q1.

I mean, hell, we’ve had record unemployment and bailouts already, but we haven’t had bank failures. Anyone who thinks the economy is doing bad right now should just wait until the loan defaults and delinquency rates start knocking on the bottom lines of the world’s banks — after we’ve already shot half our load on QE. That will make Q1 look like a cake walk.

AC