The next wave lower in the stock market comes from the housing market.
Your home is about to be worth less.
Few understand this.
— Michael A. Gayed, CFA (@leadlagreport) January 3, 2023
In November, existing home sales fell for a 10th straight month, the longest streak in National Association of Realtors data that goes back to 1999.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) January 3, 2023
US Housing Leading Growth Index Slumps To Lowest Since 1982 And 2008 Recessions (Fed Pivot Coming?)
If we look at the US Housing Leading Growth index (courtesy of RecessionAlert.com) has slumped to its worst reading since the recessions of 1982 and 2008.
Global Manufacturing Slump Continues at End of 2022 as Output and New Orders Fall Further
Excluding the early months of the pandemic, manufacturing is at the lowest level since 2009.https://t.co/mkjJNfd2nb
— Mike "Mish" Shedlock (@MishGEA) January 3, 2023
The Looming Financial Contagion. “The fact that the world did not experience a systemic financial crisis in 2022 is a minor miracle, given the surge in inflation and interest rates, not to mention a massive increase in geopolitical risk. But with public and private debt having risen to record levels during the now-bygone era of ultra-low interest rates, and recession risks high, the global financial system faces a huge stress test. A crisis in an advanced economy – for example, Japan or Italy – would be difficult to contain.”
Related: Up to a third of the world could face a recession in 2023.
BREAKING NEWS
SHOP CLOSURES IN THE UK HIT THE HIGHEST TOTAL IN FIVE YEARS
The UK budget deficit has also soared…
— Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) January 2, 2023
Kicking off the first trading hour of the year with a 60+ point reversal in $SPX and an 8% $VIX spike.
Excited for 2023 and the volatility it will bring.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 3, 2023
Canary in the coal mine — RV sales tumbe 50% indicating RECESSION!
If you still have doubts about whether the U.S. will slip into a recession, perhaps this will dispel them: the RV industry is significantly weakening. … In November, RV shipments from manufacturers to dealers tumbled 50.4% from the same period a year earlier to 24,445, according to the RV Industry Association (RVIA). In 2022, wholesale RV shipments totaled 472,691, 15.6% below the year-ago figure, the trade group says.
Probably nothing. pic.twitter.com/Rq47o1xjSe
— Jake Wujastyk (@Jake__Wujastyk) January 2, 2023
Tech Layoffs Are Happening Faster Than at Any Time During the Pandemic https://t.co/i9ysms42bq
— WSJ Graphics (@WSJGraphics) January 3, 2023
HONDA just saw its LARGEST sales decline ever in 2022.
Down 33% year-over-year. Wild!
Hate to say this… But think twice before you buy a new Honda: pic.twitter.com/WBkWEDvvjs
— CarDealershipGuy (@GuyDealership) January 2, 2023
Inflation rates for The West vs China
Italy 🇮🇹 11.8%
UK 🇬🇧 10.7%
Euro Area 🇪🇺 10.1%
Germany 🇩🇪 10%
Holland 🇳🇱 9.9%
USA 🇺🇸 7.1%
France 🇫🇷 6.2%
•••••••••••••••••••••••
China 🇨🇳 1.6%— Wifey (@WifeyAlpha) January 2, 2023
Michael Burry: “US Is In Recession, Fed Will Cut And Will Cause Another Inflation Spike”
In the waning days of 2022, one of the most bearish (and accurate, at least as far as last year was concerned) strategists, SocGen’s resident permabear Albert Edwards, laid out what he thinks will be the big surprise of 2023, which will be “a return to deflation fears as headline CPI inflation drops close to, or likely below zero. Investors are already anticipating recession and have an unusually strong preference for bonds.”