Remember the same yield curve that predicted dot com crash, Lehman Collapse, predicted Covid19
Also the same curve keeps saying. The pain in the economy has just begun… with or without Central Banks…
Lift the curve up to ~4 and we can start talking about new recovery cycle. pic.twitter.com/RhzGfInhM3
— GregTheAnalyst (@Analyst_G) March 20, 2020
This is NOT supposed to happen: US Treasuries and S&P500 both sell off. When it does happen it is a sign of general liquidation. And when very unexpected things happen that unleashes other bad dynamics e.g. hedge fund strategies backfire. @SoberLook essential data source. pic.twitter.com/x1J6UUyHj3
— Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) March 20, 2020
Goldman U.S. GDP forecasts for second quarter:
On Monday – Minus 5%
Today – Minus 24%It's been a long week pic.twitter.com/M58BvRR8Jn
— Lorcan Roche Kelly (@LorcanRK) March 20, 2020
Bank of America now forecasting a global recession with GDP growth dropping to 0% in 2020: "Our first piece on the virus shock was titled 'Bad or worse'; now we amend that to 'Really bad or much worse.'"
— Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) March 20, 2020
Central banks are going all out, without any limits. Everything is on the table & it just might work.
However, you know that means?
The recovery will be even more anemic (again) & the next recession/crash will be even worse (again).
The system is becoming more & more fragile.
— Tiho Brkan (@TihoBrkan) March 20, 2020
JP Morgan predicts an ugly global recession: "global economy is poised to contract this quarter & next with the US projected to decline at a -14% and the Euro area at a -22% ar next quarter." But my view is that it's highly unlikely that growth grows >0 by Q3. At the earliest Q4!
— Nouriel Roubini (@Nouriel) March 20, 2020
Municipal bonds, investment-grade bonds, junk grade bonds, and Emerging Market hard currency bonds all look horrible.
Where else do you see debt stresses in the system?$MUNI $LQD $HYG $EMB pic.twitter.com/uALPJwRn1H
— Tiho Brkan (@TihoBrkan) March 20, 2020
Market will price it in – without him.
Jobless Claims
Data from March 14 … see any resemblances?
2008
And I will repeat: Financial Crisis not Correction t.co/js093tZGSP pic.twitter.com/elxFZ9w9vD
— Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) March 20, 2020
"Investment Grade" Corporate Bond ETF off 19% in 12 days… ETF's failing the stress test.$LQD pic.twitter.com/yKX68HnHje
— Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) March 18, 2020
U.S. Recession Chances Now 80% Despite Fed Emergency Moves: Reuters Poll
The coronavirus crisis has almost certainly ended the longest U.S. expansion on record and pushed the economy into the start of a short slump, according to analysts polled by Reuters who gave a median 80% chance of recession this year.
14 Million Americans Have Been Laid Off So Far Due To COVID-19
“High school educated workers are twice as likely to have lost their jobs as college graduates.”