The market has been at this same level for almost a year.
Caught between the prospect of Fed easing and recession.
In the meantime, the prospects for an economic soft landing have steadily dwindled as the middle class implodes in real-time. pic.twitter.com/kmYr8uEgxe
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) April 11, 2023
Back in his November 2 presser, Powell was asked about the inverted curve.
He essentially answered, "Nothing to see here. The curve we watch is not inverted."
—
From the presser transcripthttps://t.co/Xc1Cle0tdmPOWELL: Well, so we do monitor the near-term forward spread,… pic.twitter.com/flH3EmBf4q
— Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth (@biancoresearch) April 10, 2023
The 3-Month Treasury yield of 5.08% is now 1.67% higher than the 10-Year Treasury yield (3.41%). This is the most inverted yield curve in history. pic.twitter.com/w4fAVMxecO
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) April 11, 2023
Bank run in slow motion continues: Since the #Fed began to raise rates in March 2022, total deposit outflows from the US banking sector is now $967.5bn, almost $1trn, the biggest outflow on record. (via Apollo) pic.twitter.com/PjAQQQoQqj
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) April 9, 2023
US T-BILL 3M yield new high pic.twitter.com/PiBiRqwzc5
— 🅰🅻🅴🆂🆂🅸🅾 (@AlessioUrban) April 11, 2023
The short-term bottom probabilities for US Dollar Index DXY are at 90% and favor a rally from here if history is anything to go by. https://t.co/GZgsm9jZG0 pic.twitter.com/TFGpQAb32e
— RecessionALERT 🚨 (@RecessionAlert2) April 11, 2023
The S&P 500 has another 45% downside as investors remain blind to signs that a recession is hurtling toward the US economy, per on Wolfenbarger of research firm Bull and Bear Profits.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 11, 2023
Maybe give fewer speeches and spend more time studying data.
Just a thought. https://t.co/73EZw7vs4o pic.twitter.com/kDThAHmKi4
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) April 11, 2023
Bloomberg Wealth: Recession Vibes Are Strong
The odds of a recession are growing.
That’s the takeaway from a new survey of economists that Bloomberg recently conducted. The probability of a downturn in the next year is now 65%, up from 60% in February.
It feels like we’ve been saying this for months, but a few important events are now increasing the likelihood of trouble for the economy.
First, several bank closures including Silicon Valley Bank are inciting fears about the financial sector (although policymakers took steps to stem the contagion, are planning an overhaul of regulations, and may lean on big banks to cover the cost of the recent failures).
Then, the Federal Reserve continued with its planned interest rate hike in its March meeting, despite the banking drama. Plus, the looming return of federal student loan payments has some worried about the resulting impact to consumer spending. Perhaps no cohort will feel the restart quite like Gen Z, since those who graduated during the pandemic have never had to budget for it.
Fear of Stock Losses Has Retirement Savers Sticking With Cash
Bank of America shares 12 charts that show that the economy is about to enter a full-blown recession