#recession … #GFC2 edition
The US is still leading the world in this second Global Financial Crisis… 📉 https://t.co/H3sHM1zpvI
— Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) October 16, 2020
#recession … #Global $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition
The #Fed started losing control of the US #Dollar a long time ago… leading to successively larger financial crises each decade (S&L/LatAm 1988, LTCM/EM 1998, #GFC 2008, #GFC2 2020). 👇https://t.co/IsExuhlmhs pic.twitter.com/mNfupwyZuS
— Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) October 16, 2020
After today's Mallinckrodt bankruptcy – with some $2B outstanding at default – the US #leveragedloan default rate is 4.05%, up from 3.88% earlier this month. Market pros expect the rate to top out 6.6% (you can read all about that here https://t.co/UxZuqzkNCB) @Kakourisr
— Leveraged Loans (@lcdnews) October 12, 2020
US High Yield CCC-and-lower-rated bonds, the junkiest of junk, currently have a default rate of 41.3%! And yet folks are still rummaging around for yield. @PictetWM via @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/xvgpSPGIgE
— Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) August 25, 2020
"The history of economic crises has taught us that if a business cycle is artificially extended through monetary stimulation, exactly as we are now experiencing, the risk of a catastrophic economic collapse is greatly increased."@GnSEconomics #recession https://t.co/WVSo9k7mzX
— Tuomas Malinen (@mtmalinen) October 10, 2020
Moody’s downgrades #UK one notch to Aa3 stable outlook from Aa2 w/neg outlook on low growth, high debt and fractious policy environment. Expects govt debt to GDP ratio to peak at 112% by year-end. Sees govt deficit of 18.5% for this year and 7.4% for 2021. pic.twitter.com/rzJTpHaBoV
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 16, 2020
🇬🇧 U.K. Banks Expect to See a Jump in Mortgage Loan Defaults
Financial strains on U.K. borrowers as wage subsidies end and unemployment rises is expected lead to a spike in defaults on mortgages, credit cards and other loans.#UK #recession #defaultshttps://t.co/Jj4SYOmGuF pic.twitter.com/j25iLKNDGA
— GnS Economics (@GnSEconomics) October 17, 2020
🇺🇸 Jobless claims jump, hitting highest level since mid-August
Initial claims 898,000 (previous 845,000).
Continuing claims declined by 1.165 million to just over 10 million#US #recessionhttps://t.co/RjCY8degez pic.twitter.com/Ju9BEHF94X— GnS Economics (@GnSEconomics) October 15, 2020
IMF Joins Powell and Lagarde Urging Governments to Keep Spending
Governments already injected some $12 trillion of stimulus
UBS: “This is not a credit crunch. Cutting the cost of credit isn’t going to stimulate the economy”#economy #recession #stimulushttps://t.co/jVtwqOa9IB pic.twitter.com/ghXDrB8pnQ
— GnS Economics (@GnSEconomics) October 15, 2020
Wow What A Shocker US Industrial Production Rolled Over Unexpectedly, Dropping -0.6%, Vs A 0.5%, As The Failed Response Of Stimulus Delivered Another Dud As The #Economy Reverts Back To #Recession. https://t.co/uaGQQX4jMs pic.twitter.com/2Rz8CkSJ1M
— Crush The Market (@crushthemarket) October 16, 2020