In the midst if the financial market turmoil there has been a consistent theme which can be missed. Currency markets rarely get too much of a look in on the main stream media unless they can find something dramatic. But CNN Business has given it a mention.
The US dollar is rallying against virtually every other currency and it seems like nothing can stop it.
There are lots of consequences and implications here but let us start with some numbers. My home country has seen an impact as the UK Pound £ has been pushed back to US $1.20 and even the Euro which has benefited from Carry Trade reversals ( people borrowed in Euros to take advantage of negative interest-rates) has been pushed below 1.10. Even the Japanese Yen which is considered a safe haven in such times has been pushed back to 107.50. We can get more thoughts on this from The Straits Times from earlier today.
SYDNEY (REUTERS) – The Australian dollar was ravaged on Wednesday (March 18) after toppling to 17-year lows as fears of a coronavirus-induced global recession sent investors fleeing from risk assets and commodities, with panic selling even spilling over into sovereign bonds.
The New Zealand dollar was also on the ropes at US$0.5954, having shed 1.7 per cent overnight to the lowest since mid-2009.
The Aussie was pinned at US$0.6004 after sliding 2 per cent on Tuesday to US$0.5958, depths not seen since early 2003.
So there are issues ans especially in a land down under as an Aussie Dollar gets closer to the value of a Kiwi one. In fact the Aussie has been hit again today falling to US $0.5935 as I type this. No doubt it is being affected by lower commodity prices signalled in some respects by Dr. Copper falling by over 4% to US $2.20
Sadly the effective or trade-weighted index is not up to date but as of the 13th of this month the official US Federal Reserve version was at 120.7 as opposed to the 115 it began the year.
Demand for Dollars
It was only on Monday we looked at the modifications to the liquidity or FX Swaps between the world’s main central banks. Hot off the wires is this.
BoE Allots $8.210B In 7 Day USD Repo Operation ( @LiveSquawk )
This means that even in the UK we are seeing demands for US Dollars which cannot be easily got in the markets right now. Maybe whoever this is has been pushing the UK Pound £ down but we get a perspective by the fact that this facility had not been used since mid-December when the grand sum of $5 million was requested. There were larger requests back in November 2008.
I was surprised that so little notice was taken when I pointed this out yesterday.
Interesting to see the Bank of Japan supply some US $30.3 billion this morning until June 11th. Was it Japanese banks who were needing dollars?
Completing the set comes the European Central Bank or ECB.
FRANKFURT (Reuters) – The European Central Bank on Wednesday lent euro zone banks $112 billion at two auctions aimed at easing stress in the U.S. dollar funding market, part of the financial fallout of the coronavirus outbreak.
The ECB said it had allotted $75.82 billion in its new 84-day auction, introduced by major central banks last weekend in response to global demand for greenbacks, and $36.27 billion at its regular 7-day tender.
Actually it was good the ECB found the time as it is otherwise busy arguing with itself.
With regards to comments made by Governor Holzmann, the ECB states:
The Governing Council was unanimous in its analysis that in addition to the measures it decided on 12 March 2020, the ECB will continue to monitor closely the consequences for the economy of the spreading coronavirus and that the ECB stands ready to adjust all of its measures, as appropriate, should this be needed to safeguard liquidity conditions in the banking system and to ensure the smooth transmission of its monetary policy in all jurisdictions.
So we see now why the Swap Lines were reinforced and buttressed.
Oh and even the Swiss Banks joined in.
*SNB GETS $315M BIDS FOR 84-DAY DOLLAR REPO ( @GregBeglaryan )
Emerging Markets
This is far worse and let me give you a different perspective on this. During the period of the trade war we looked regularly at the state of play in the Pacific as it was being disproportionately affected.
Let me hand you over to @Trinhnomics or Trinh Nguyen.
Swap lines to EM please (also to Australia – we like Australia in Asia too as it’s APAC). “the supply of liquidity by central banks is beneficial only to those who can access it,
Her concern was over that region and EM is Emerging Markets. I enquired further.
Operationally, the bid for USD in Asia and squeeze in liquidity reflects the massive role of the USD in the global economy & finance. For example, 87% of China merchandise trade is invoiced in US. and the loss of income from export earnings will further push higher the demand of USD. To overcome the global USD squeeze, the Fed must step up its operational support via swap lines with economies such as South Korea.
That was from a piece she wrote for the Financial Times but got cut from it. On twitter she went further with a theme regular readers will find familiar
Guys, the reason why we have a dollar shortage is because we have levered!!!!!!!!!!! So when income collapses, we got major problem because we have leveraged & so debt needs servicing etc. Aniwaize, the stress u see is because we live in a world that’s too leveraged!!!
And again although I would point out that leverage can simply be a gamble rather than a hope for better times.
Don’t forget that low rates only lower interest expense, u still got principal that is high if ur debt stock is high. When u lever, u think the FUTURE IS BETTER THAN TODAY. Obvs very clearly that whoever thought there was growth is in for a surprise given the pandemic situation.
She looks at this from the perspective of the Malaysian Ringgit which has fallen to 4.37 versus the US Dollar and the Singapore Dollar which is at 1.44.
Comment
We are now seeing a phase of King Dollar or Holla Dollar and let me add some more places into the mix. We have previously looked at countries which have borrowed in US Dollars and they will be feeling the strain especially if they are commodity producers as well. This covers quite a few countries in Latin America and of course some of those have their own problems too boot. I also recall Ukraine running the US Dollar as pretty much a parallel currency.
The beat goes on.
In times of stress, capital flees emerging markets to seek safety in $USD . This crisis is no different. ( @IceCapGlobal)
which got this reply.
Investors have yanked at least US$55bn from EMs since January 21, according to the Institute of International Finance, exceeding the withdrawal in 2008. ( @alexharfouche1 )
Let me finish by reminding you that ordinarily we discuss matters around the price of something. But here as well as that we are discussing how much you can get and for some right now that people will not trade with you at all. That is why we are seeing what is effectively the world’s central bank the Federal Reserve offering US Dollars in so many different ways. It is spraying US $500 billion Repo operations around like confetti but I am reminded of the words of Glenn Frey.
The heat is on, on the street
Inside your head, on every beat
And the beat’s so loud, deep inside
The pressure’s high, just to stay alive
‘Cause the heat is on
The Investment Channel