To believe the consensus that the Fed will do 6 more rate rises by end of 2019 is to expect nothing major to go wrong anywhere in the world over the next 15 months.

by mark000

That is so optimistic I can only laugh.

The rate the 2y yield is increasing we could see an inverted yield curve in as little as 3 months. Seems like the tightening cycle is in the very late stages.

“Trump Unleashes Full-Scale Trade War With China”: How do you think this will effect the global economy? Could this precipitate the next financial crisis?

86% of S&P 500 Will Be in Share-Buyback Blackout Period as of October 5

A steady stream of robust earnings and economic data has virtually zapped volatility from U.S. stocks, but a coming freeze on share buybacks could challenge the market.

Companies typically don’t repurchase their own shares in the month before reporting quarterly results due to regulations, and with the third quarter coming to an end, 86% of the S&P 500 will be temporarily restricted by Oct. 5, according to Goldman Sachs analysts led by David Kostin.

After 33 Straight Months of Declines, CA Housing Inventory Rises for 5th Straight Month

Here is some data from the NAR and CAR (ht Tom Lawler)

YOY % Change, Existing SF Homes for Sale
Sep-17 -8.4% -11.2%
Oct-17 -10.4% -11.5%
Nov-17 -9.7% -11.5%
Dec-17 -11.5% -12.0%
Jan-18 -9.5% -6.6%
Feb-18 -8.6% -1.3%
Mar-18 -7.2% -1.0%
Apr-18 -6.3% 1.9%
May-18 -5.1 8.3%
Jun-18 -0.5% 8.1%
Jul-18 0.0% 11.9%
Aug-18 17.2%


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